https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/15--expansion-of-varieties-in-new-age-of-advertising?item=da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 10:0:0 EST Salomé Baslandze, Jeremy Greenwood, Ricardo Marto, and Sara MoreiraWorking Paper 2023-15September 2023The authors study how the rise in digital advertising that facilitated consumer targeting by firms led to the increase in product varieties and affected economic welfare. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/14--why-does-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth--role-of-banks?item=1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:30:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2023-14September 2023Examining the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending, the authors show that a steeper yield curve associated with higher term premiums boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/13--uniform-priors-for-impulse-responses?item=46895540-090d-4226-b135-4291a5a8444e 46895540-090d-4226-b135-4291a5a8444e Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:0:0 EST Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Daniel F. WaggonerWorking Paper 2023-13September 2023The authors consider the conventional method for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions identified with sign restrictions and despite the call for caution from some researchers find that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with using this approach. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/12--impact-of-supply-chain-disruptions-on-business-expectations-during-pandemic?item=5edd2fc3-86e0-40fa-9fe7-84dab082f184 5edd2fc3-86e0-40fa-9fe7-84dab082f184 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 8:30:0 EST Brent H. Meyer, Brian C. Prescott, and Xuguang Simon ShengWorking Paper 2023-12September 2023Using data from the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey, the authors document how firms' views on their marginal cost expectations and risk evolved over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/07/11--modeling-event-studies-with-heterogeneous-treatment-effects?item=8c322a3a-89b8-4d35-adbb-72c43fa404e4 8c322a3a-89b8-4d35-adbb-72c43fa404e4 Thursday, 7 Sep 2023 3:30:0 EST Laura M. Argys, Thomas A. Mroz, and M. Melinda PittsWorking Paper 2023-11September 2023The authors develop a simple approach to overcome the shortcomings of using a standard, single treatment–effect event study to assess the ability of an empirical model to measure heterogeneous treatment effects. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/08/31/10--monetary-policy-implementation-with-ample-reserves?item=05378b40-b7cf-42ae-869e-eb9a4dde1504 05378b40-b7cf-42ae-869e-eb9a4dde1504 Thursday, 31 Aug 2023 3:30:0 EST Gara Afonso, Kyungmin Kim, Antoine Martin, Ed Nosal, Simon Potter, and Sam Schulhofer-WohlWorking Paper 2023-10August 2023Policy makers can face tradeoffs costs and benefits in the way they implement monetary policy. The authors find that the optimal regime is characterized by ample reserves: a situation where the supply of central bank reserves is neither too scarce nor too abundant. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/08/02/09--local-origins-of-business-formation?item=cd0423d7-6acd-4a3b-97fa-9f077a05fbdf cd0423d7-6acd-4a3b-97fa-9f077a05fbdf Wednesday, 2 Aug 2023 3:30:0 EST Emin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, and Veronika Penciakova Working Paper 2023-9August 2023The authors decompose spatial variation in startups into variation in business idea creation and the transition rate of ideas to startups. They also quantify the fraction of variation in startups, applications, and transition rates accounted for by local conditions at the county and tract levels. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/07/31/08--tell-me-something-i-dont-already-know--learning-in-low-and-high-inflation-settings?item=00cb03d4-bb89-4140-a7be-c20ddde348f0 00cb03d4-bb89-4140-a7be-c20ddde348f0 Monday, 31 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, and Geoff KennyWorking Paper 2023-8July 2023Using randomized control trials applied over time in different countries, the authors study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. In higher-inflation environments, firms become more attentive and informed about inflation, responding less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/07/14/07--social-costs-role-in-response-to-labor-market-opportunities--differences-across-race?item=4f0869f2-8afa-4d4c-bb5b-f24c0f783c74 4f0869f2-8afa-4d4c-bb5b-f24c0f783c74 Friday, 14 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. HotchkissWorking Paper 2023-7July 2023Investigating the role that migration constraints play in racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market, the authors find that Black workers are typically less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, though their responsiveness increases when job opportunities are in locations with a higher share of their own racial/ethnic group. https://www.atlantafed.org/banking-and-payments/consumer-payments/research-data-reports/2023/07/14/use-of-checks-in-selected-countries?item=dd79ce57-72b0-4a8d-8bb1-08f2d07ad642 dd79ce57-72b0-4a8d-8bb1-08f2d07ad642 Friday, 14 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. HotchkissWorking Paper 2023-7July 2023Investigating the role that migration constraints play in racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market, the authors find that Black workers are typically less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, though their responsiveness increases when job opportunities are in locations with a higher share of their own racial/ethnic group. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/06/20/06--profitability-channel-of-monetary-policy-transmission?item=4fac6828-4043-4158-94d8-9a0345e0af5f 4fac6828-4043-4158-94d8-9a0345e0af5f Tuesday, 20 Jun 2023 3:30:0 EST Alex Hsu, Indrajit Mitra, and Linghang ZengWorking Paper 2023-6June 2023The authors present firm-level evidence that Federal Open Market Committee announcements influence firm investment by changing expectations of firm profitability. This channel of monetary policy makes qualitatively distinct predictions compared to the traditional discount rate–based channels in the literature. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/06/02/05--estimates-of-cost-price-passthrough-from-business-survey-data?item=c8970843-f14a-4cec-8e5b-88063bbca5d0 c8970843-f14a-4cec-8e5b-88063bbca5d0 Friday, 2 Jun 2023 3:30:0 EST Keshav Dogra, Sebastian Heise, Edward S. Knotek, Brent H. Meyer, Robert W. Rich, Raphael S. Schoenle, Georgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Wändi Bruine de BruinWorking Paper 2023-5June 2023Using a combination of interviews and surveys, the authors examine firm price-setting behavior. They estimate that firms, on average, pass through about 60 percent of cost increases onto prices and find that respondent firms expect slower growth in costs and prices this year. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/05/21/04--growing-electric-vehicle-adoption?item=f45772b2-3f11-4362-9ec0-7f40028a283a f45772b2-3f11-4362-9ec0-7f40028a283a Wednesday, 17 May 2023 5:30:0 EST Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. HotchkissWorking Paper 2023-4May 2023As adoption of electric vehicles is expected to accelerate, states will need to find alternative funding sources for road maintenance, which is currently primarily paid for through gasoline taxes. The authors explore the burden on families at different income levels of some policy alternatives. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/04/21/03--real-rigidities-firm-dynamics-and-monetary-nonneutrality--role-of-demand-shocks?item=81a61d2c-a9e7-41f9-981e-4c861fea6695 81a61d2c-a9e7-41f9-981e-4c861fea6695 Friday, 21 Apr 2023 5:30:0 EST S. Borağan Aruoba, Eugene Oue, Felipe Saffie, and Jonathan L. WillisWorking Paper 2023-3April 2023The authors propose a model featuring complementarities that can generate monetary nonneutrality. This model opens the door to modeling real (investment, labor, and sales), nominal (pricing and nonneutrality), and competition (markup) dynamics in a framework amenable to policy analysis. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/02/13/02--diamond-dybvig-and-beyond--on-instability-of-banking?item=b7434bbd-1bf7-47d0-80ac-a109b0f5d5f7 b7434bbd-1bf7-47d0-80ac-a109b0f5d5f7 Monday, 13 Feb 2023 9:30:0 EST Chao Gu, Cyril Monnet, Ed Nosal, and Randall WrightWorking Paper 2023-2February 2023Are financial intermediaries inherently unstable? The authors address this question using a number of different, but related, models. They consistently find that financial intermediaries are more prone to instability than other types of nonfinancial organizations.