Working Papers - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - FRB Atlanta Several series of papers presenting the scholarly research of Atlanta Fed staff economists and visiting scholars. Community Affairs discussion papers address topical issues in community development. en-us Atlanta Fed Logo Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax E292D56C-C4E4-4F3B-904B-8774245BE0E9 Wed, 29 Jun 2022 09:30:00 EST For richer or for poorer? Investigating a new measure of the marriage tax the reduction in future spending from getting married the authors of this working paper find that the marriage tax rate, which averages 2.69 percent reduces the probability of marrying by up to 13 percent. The Transmission of Financial Shocks and Leverage of Financial Institutions: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Framework 20FD9D32-769E-48B8-97DA-C9D5AE8C2367 Thu, 02 Jun 2022 09:30:00 EST Investigating the role of leverage of financial institutions in the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, the authors of this working paper find empirical evidence that the real effects of financial shocks were amplified by the leverage of financial institutions during the Great Recession. The Downward Spiral C45CFFC1-EEF6-4620-B649-5B2D2A0190C0 Fri, 25 Feb 2022 09:30:00 EST There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. The authors of this working paper develop a framework to study the opioid epidemic and find that drops in the price of both medical prescriptions and illicit opioids combined with increases in prescribed dosages are the primary drivers. Does Access to Free Pre-Kindergarten Increase Maternal Labor Supply? 82C866B8-D28C-4A58-AB5D-AB04C1D7B94F Wed, 02 Feb 2022 09:30:00 EST Exploring the impact of free pre-K programs on maternal participation in the labor force, the authors of this working paper find that the availability of free pre-K programs increases the labor force participation rate of mothers with one child age 3 or 4 by an average of 2.3 percentage points. Fintech Entry, Firm Financial Inclusion, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Emerging Economies D639B360-5195-402D-BC2C-521E51C1233C Mon, 31 Jan 2022 09:30:00 EST Examining the impact of fintech on emerging economies, the authors of this working paper find that unless greater fintech entry leads to lower borrowing costs for firms that adopt fintech credit, an expanding number of fintech intermediaries will have no meaningful consequences on credit markets and business cycles in emerging economies. Racial Disparities in Mortgage Lending: New Evidence Based on Processing Time D066A3F8-B261-476C-9540-65C2F4A4AEEB Thu, 13 Jan 2022 09:30:00 EST Examining racial disparities in mortgage processing time prior to the global financial crisis, the authors of this working paper find that Black borrowers are underrepresented and experience a longer processing time than White borrowers among the mortgages securitized by government-sponsored enterprises. Luxuries, Necessities, and the Allocation of Time 29AEA921-6E42-4F28-9572-BC3287899CFA Tue, 28 Dec 2021 00:00:00 EST Households enjoy utility from activities requiring a combination of time and goods. By classifying activities into luxuries and necessities, the authors find that since 2003, the rise in luxury leisure price has reduced welfare inequality while the rise in wage dispersion has increased it. Sovereign Risk and Financial Risk A9E447FC-3F0C-4ADA-A194-FEFFC4766251 Wed, 24 Nov 2021 09:30:00 EST Studying the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk, the authors of this working paper find that changes in global financial risk account for a substantial portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads and that an increase in global financial risk causes a large and persistent widening of sovereign bond spreads. Modeling to Inform Economy-Wide Pandemic Policy: Bringing Epidemiologists and Economists Together 197CE553-4F08-4A5C-BF22-DFD4B2D38633 Tue, 16 Nov 2021 09:30:00 EST Divergent policy recommendations from economists and epidemiologists during the pandemic led to uncertainty and confusion among the public and policymakers. To find consensus, in this working paper an interdisciplinary group of scholars discusses the sources of these differences and a path forward for more effective synergy between disciplines. Dividend Momentum and Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Approach ECE30701-9D8C-41FE-833D-42F749E6E7D3 Wed, 10 Nov 2021 09:41:00 EST Studying the dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends, the authors of this working paper show that omitting dividend growth from the system amounts to imposing the extra restriction that dividend growth is not persistent. Their estimation leads to a much more moderate degree of return predictability and better out-sample forecast performance.