subscribeMacroblog The Switch: The Changing Conditions Behind the New GDPNow Model https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2025/04/23/the-switch-changing-conditions-behind-new-gdpnow-model?item=42703cdc-15a2-4cd0-b014-8f37a8b65d00 42703cdc-15a2-4cd0-b014-8f37a8b65d00 Wednesday, 23 Apr 2025 10:0:0 EST The recent surge in gold imports created dramatic disparities between various GDP forecasts and prompted changes to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcasting model. In this post, economist Patrick Higgins looks more closely at the conditions behind the switch to a gold-adjusted model. The Impact on the Labor Market of Potential Reductions in Federal Employment https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2025/04/21/impact-on-labor-market-of-potential-reductions-in-federal-employment?item=ca79fd40-9804-4ede-b28d-af3620ebb1e9 ca79fd40-9804-4ede-b28d-af3620ebb1e9 Monday, 21 Apr 2025 11:0:0 EST The federal government is the largest employer in the United States. How might cutbacks affect the overall labor force? A Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at data to understand the potential impact on employment. How Are Tariffs Affecting Firms? https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2025/04/01/how-are-tariffs-affecting-firms?item=c7b0418f-b3f0-4eb3-b337-0492a1363c47 c7b0418f-b3f0-4eb3-b337-0492a1363c47 Tuesday, 1 Apr 2025 11:0:0 EST How might the implementation of tariffs on certain countries affect the outlook of firms that source from those countries? To learn the answer to this question, a Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at recent survey data to understand firm sentiment. Recent Trends in the Demand for AI Skills https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/10/15/recent-trends-in-demand-for-ai-skills?item=065e2d70-8bdc-40e5-a75a-41163c2e8797 065e2d70-8bdc-40e5-a75a-41163c2e8797 Tuesday, 15 Oct 2024 6:0:0 EST Employer demand for workers possessing AI-related skills has increased dramatically in recent years. A post explores factors behind the heightened demand and what it implies about the job market. How Does Election Uncertainty Impact Firms? https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/09/25/how-does-election-uncertainty-impact-firms?item=1c389034-88fe-48cf-973c-e055891380bb 1c389034-88fe-48cf-973c-e055891380bb Wednesday, 25 Sep 2024 6:0:0 EST In the runup to November's elections, how is election-related uncertainty affecting businesses' plans? A post looks at recent survey data to take the pulse of firms and answer the question. The Pause and Resumption of the Wage Growth Tracker https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/08/28/pause-and-resumption-of-wage-growth-tracker?item=5d0006fb-8d73-402a-9fbb-d2c2a347d9bb 5d0006fb-8d73-402a-9fbb-d2c2a347d9bb Wednesday, 28 Aug 2024 6:0:0 EST The inflation of recent years has placed upward pressure on wages. How persistent will wage growth pressures remain? A post looks at recent survey data to take the pulse of firms and answer the question. Labor Supply of Newly Immigrated Workers https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/08/19/labor-supply-of-newly-immigrated-workers?item=d144111c-c991-490c-b9a7-1711c7460be9 d144111c-c991-490c-b9a7-1711c7460be9 Monday, 19 Aug 2024 9:0:0 EST How does the labor supply of people who enter the US as new immigrants differ from natives? A post examines recent survey data to answer the question. Are Real Wages Catching Up? https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/06/27/are-real-wages-catching-up?item=94e2de0b-0887-4b3e-a926-2bfcfd2eff80 94e2de0b-0887-4b3e-a926-2bfcfd2eff80 Thursday, 27 Jun 2024 9:0:0 EST The inflation of recent years has placed upward pressure on wages. How persistent will wage growth pressures remain? A post looks at recent survey data to take the pulse of firms and answer the question. Do Firms Expect Growth in Prices to Persist—and Does Automation Make a Difference? https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/06/20/do-firms-expect-growth-in-prices-to-persist--and-does-automation-make-a-difference?item=31deb8bb-9bf2-4ba4-a843-3bed91e8de28 31deb8bb-9bf2-4ba4-a843-3bed91e8de28 Thursday, 20 Jun 2024 9:0:0 EST Do firms expect price growth to remain elevated? Can automation help lower price growth? A Policy Hub: Macroblog post consults the results of the most recent CFO Survey to learn the answers to these questions. Looking Back at 10 Years of the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/02/05/looking-back-at-10-years-of-atlanta-feds-wage-growth-tracker?item=21f499c2-a097-45d4-9bfb-072071d914f0 21f499c2-a097-45d4-9bfb-072071d914f0 Monday, 5 Feb 2024 9:0:0 EST On the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, a Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at the origins of the tool, how it has evolved over a decade, and what it continues to tell us about wages and the labor force. Does Trade Uncertainty Affect Bank Lending? https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/01/03/does-trade-uncertainty-affect-bank-lending?item=ea270236-ccbb-4ba4-995a-ae4fc3d8399f ea270236-ccbb-4ba4-995a-ae4fc3d8399f Wednesday, 3 Jan 2024 9:0:0 EST This Policy Hub: Macroblog post examines the effects of the 2018–19 "trade war" on banks and the nonfinancial firms likely to depend on bank financing. Takeaways from the 2023 CEAR-CenFIS Conference: "Interest Rate Variability and the Financial Sector" https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/12/19/takeaways-from-2023-cear-cenfis-conference--interest-rate-variability-and-the-financial-sector?item=f29c74e8-84a8-4b20-beca-bec09aaa4c2a f29c74e8-84a8-4b20-beca-bec09aaa4c2a Tuesday, 19 Dec 2023 9:0:0 EST What effects do fluctuating interest rates have on the financial sector? A recent conference examined this question, and a Policy Hub: Macroblog post summarizes the research and conclusions reached there. Labor Market Tightness and How to Measure It https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/12/01/labor-market-tightness--how-to-measure-it?item=fbd40141-9da2-4bb9-b93b-3fed1eed8611 fbd40141-9da2-4bb9-b93b-3fed1eed8611 Friday, 1 Dec 2023 9:0:0 EST Many labor market observers call the current job market "tight," but how is tightness measured, and what role does it play in monetary policymaking? A Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at ways to assess labor market tightness and what it might mean for policy. Distinguishing Cyclical from Noncyclical Employment https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/10/12/distinguishing-cyclical-from-noncyclical-employment?item=735ab592-8dfa-467b-af7e-5f89006d7098 735ab592-8dfa-467b-af7e-5f89006d7098 Thursday, 12 Oct 2023 9:0:0 EST Some aspects of the labor market have a cyclical nature, but the health care and social services sector does not. A Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at the performance of this sector, how the pandemic affected it, and what its growth might say about the future labor market. During the Pandemic, Average Hours Rose. And Fell. https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/10/05/during-pandemic-average-hours-rose-and-fell?item=84ad754e-50e8-490c-b721-d1e5a852c115 84ad754e-50e8-490c-b721-d1e5a852c115 Thursday, 5 Oct 2023 9:0:0 EST The pandemic caused significant changes in the labor market, some of which we are still trying to understand. A Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at two data series that illuminate different dimensions of these changes. Remembering Sheila Tschinkel, an Atlanta Fed Research Director Whose Contributions Endure https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/08/31/remembering-sheila-tschinkel-atlanta-fed-research-director-whose-contributions-endure?item=7632b72c-0708-45c1-9907-a7129acbe1b7 7632b72c-0708-45c1-9907-a7129acbe1b7 Thursday, 31 Aug 2023 9:0:0 EST The Atlanta Fed has benefited from a number of influential, innovative leaders over the years. A Policy Hub: Macroblog post remembers our former research director Sheila Tschinkel, who recently passed away but whose impact is still evident. Leaning Against the Global Financial Cycle with Macroprudential Policy: Lessons from an Emerging Market https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/08/29/leaning-against-global-financial-cycle-macroprudential-policy--lessons-from-emerging-market?item=78a24234-67ea-41eb-a2ed-296455a868f5 78a24234-67ea-41eb-a2ed-296455a868f5 Tuesday, 29 Aug 2023 9:0:0 EST International capital flows, and their boom-and-bust cycles, can be particularly destabilizing to emerging economies. But how can their impact be blunted? A Policy Hub: Macroblog post considers the case of Romania to provide answers. Recapping the 2023 Financial Markets Conference: "Old Challenges in New Clothes: Outfitting Finance, Technology, and Regulation for the Mid-2020s" https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/06/27/recapping-2023-financial-markets-conference?item=ba66edd4-78cc-4373-b51e-20e1e095ce0f ba66edd4-78cc-4373-b51e-20e1e095ce0f Tuesday, 27 Jun 2023 3:30:0 EST The Atlanta Fed recently held its annual Financial Markets Conference, which tackled some thorny issues around the financial system. A Policy Hub: Macroblog post summarizes the conference's discussions. History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes: The Failures of Silicon Valley and First Republic Banks https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/06/21/failures-of-silicon-valley-and-first-republic-banks?item=e1dd10ef-4781-4a56-9bfe-626d17fecc55 e1dd10ef-4781-4a56-9bfe-626d17fecc55 Wednesday, 21 Jun 2023 3:30:0 EST Though comparing banking eras poses challenges, meaningful parallels can be drawn. A Policy Hub: Macroblog post looks at some high-profile bank failures, past and present, to see what lessons history can teach us. Expanding the Dashboard Approach to Monitoring Underlying Inflation https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2023/05/31/expanding-dashboard-approach-to-monitoring-underlying-inflation?item=58229110-ad34-413e-a624-6e9150dd430f 58229110-ad34-413e-a624-6e9150dd430f Wednesday, 31 May 2023 3:30:0 EST Inflation usually has numerous causes and thus multiple facets to observe and measure. A Policy Hub: Macroblog post discusses recent improvements to the Atlanta Fed's dashboard dedicated to monitoring underlying inflation.