President and Chief Executive OfficerDr. Raphael W. Bostic is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He is a participant on the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System.
Message from the President
On Long and Variable Lags in Monetary Policy
By Raphael Bostic, President and Chief Executive Officer
November 15, 2022
Starting in March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised the federal funds rate six times—from a range of zero to 0.25 percent, to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent. In June, the Committee began reducing the Fed's holdings of securities, shrinking the balance sheet, another tool to pull money out of the economy and thus slow inflation.
For numerous reasons, it is difficult to predict exactly when these policy moves will significantly reduce the inflation rate. I will discuss here one of the complicating factors that is especially salient, the "long and variable" lag between a monetary policy action and its impact on the economy, and on inflation in particular. As the November FOMC statement noted, for the first time in this policy tightening cycle, the Committee will consider lags as it determines the pace of future increases in the federal funds rate.
The funds rate is the interest banks charge one another for overnight loans from their reserves at the Federal Reserve. It influences rates lenders charge borrowers. The basic idea is that higher borrowing costs will slow overall demand in the economy, which in turn will reduce inflationary pressures.
That happens gradually. A large body of research tells us it can take 18 months to two years or more for tighter monetary policy to materially affect inflation. You may be wondering: Why does it take so long?
The US economy is a vast, complex ecosystem of interrelated forces. So, it takes businesses and consumers time to recognize, feel, and act on changes in financial conditions. For instance, firms are continually making capital investments that require financing. If a company has already started to build a factory or introduce a new product line, it will often continue to move forward rather than halt the project in midstream, even though financing costs have changed since it launched the venture.
The bite comes for planned projects or expansions down the road; companies may be less likely to start these. Also, we know pricing decisions for many businesses not only hinge on current costs but are also what we call "sticky"—they don't change often even as economic conditions shift.
Both examples make clear that it can take many months for these decisions to affect the economy and prices.
To be sure, there is considerable uncertainty about how these policy lags will play out. We are still learning about an economy that is rapidly changing after an unprecedented global pandemic and other surprising events, such as the war in Ukraine, that shocked important economic sectors. In fact, one school of thought suggests that the lags may be shorter in part because of policy guidance that, in effect, allows financial markets to react to policy before we implement it. We tell them it's coming, so financial conditions in the marketplace begin changing in anticipation.
Still, monetary policy unquestionably works with a lag. So, we at the FOMC calibrate policy today knowing we won't see its full impact on inflation for months. In those circumstances, we must look to economic signals other than inflation as guideposts along our path.
Parts of the economy that are especially sensitive to interest rates, such as residential real estate, show the effects of monetary policy first. Indeed, the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis tell us private residential fixed investment—mostly home buying—fell more than 25 percent in the third quarter at an annual rate. Recently, my staff and I have seen clues that tighter financial conditions may be pinching other sectors such as commercial real estate development and banking. By and large, though, it appears tighter money has not yet constrained business activity enough to seriously dent inflation.
Because today's inflation is a by-product of an imbalance between supply and demand, our job at the FOMC is to bring them into better balance. We will achieve this by attaining a monetary policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to our target. We are not there now, and so I anticipate that more rate hikes will be needed. How will I know when we are close to that mark?
I will need to see indicators of broad-based easing of inflation.
There are glimmers of hope. After the pace of increases in goods prices accelerated in every month but one for 19 months, it slowed in July, August, and September, the last three months for which data are available, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the FOMC's preferred inflation gauge.
We will need to see increases in services prices slow, too. So far, we haven't. The PCE price index shows the pace of monthly increases in services prices ticked up in three of the past four months.
One key to easing pressures on services prices will be a better balance between demand and supply in labor markets because most service industries are labor intensive. There, recent evidence is mixed. Despite some declines in the huge number of job vacancies, the labor market remains tight as openings still far exceed the number of job seekers. That creates upward pressure on wages.
Right now, job number one for the FOMC is to tame inflation that is unacceptably high. If high inflation persists for too long and becomes entrenched in the economy, we know that more prolonged and deeper economic pain will ensue. So, while there are risks that our policy actions to tame inflation could induce a recession, that would be preferred to the alternative.
But, as I noted in recent remarks, a recession is not a foregone conclusion, and we will try to avoid one if at all possible. And there are many scenarios in which a recession, if it does occur, could turn out to be mild by historical standards.
Once we reach the appropriately restrictive policy stance to tame inflation, I think our course of action is clear. As I explained in this October speech, the FOMC will need to maintain this stance until we see convincing evidence that inflation is firmly on track toward our 2 percent objective.
Dr. Raphael W. Bostic took office June 5, 2017, as the 15th president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He is responsible for all the Bank's activities, including monetary policy, bank supervision and regulation, and payment services. He serves on the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System.
From 2012 to 2017, Bostic was the Judith and John Bedrosian Chair in Governance and the Public Enterprise at the Sol Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California (USC).
He arrived at USC in 2001 and served as a professor in the School of Policy, Planning, and Development. His research has spanned many fields, including home ownership, housing finance, neighborhood change, and the role of institutions in shaping policy effectiveness. He was director of USC's master of real estate development degree program and was the founding director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast.
Bostic also served USC's Lusk Center for Real Estate as the interim associate director from 2007 to 2009 and as the interim director from 2015 to 2016. From 2016 to 2017, he was the chair of the center's Governance, Management, and Policy Process Department.
From 2009 to 2012, Bostic was the assistant secretary for policy development and research at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). In that role, he was a principal adviser to the secretary on policy and research, helping the secretary and other principal staff make informed decisions on HUD policies and programs, as well as on budget and legislative proposals.
Bostic worked at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1995 to 2001, first as an economist and then as a senior economist in the monetary and financial studies section, where his work on the Community Reinvestment Act earned him a special achievement award.
He serves on many boards and advisory committees, including the Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Georgia's Partnership for Inclusive Innovation. He is also a member of Harvard University's Board of Overseers. He is serving as the 2021–22 chair of the board of directors of the United Way of Greater Atlanta and is the 2022 chair for the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce.
Bostic graduated from Harvard University in 1987 with a combined major in economics and psychology. He earned his doctorate in economics from Stanford University in 1995.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta serves the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which covers Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The Bank has branches in Birmingham, Jacksonville, Miami, Nashville, and New Orleans.Updated May 2022
Bostic, Raphael W. April 18, 2020. "Opinion: Fed's Working to Aid Economy, Post-Pandemic Recovery." Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Bostic, R. and Johnson, M. January 15, 2020. "BankThink: How to keep community banks thriving." American Banker.
Boarnet, M. G.; Bostic, R. W.; Rodnyansky, S.; Burinskiy, E.; Eisenlohr, A.; Jamme, H.; and Santiago-Bartolomei, R. 2020. "Do High Income Households Reduce Driving More When Living near Rail Transit?" Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 80.
Bostic, R. W.; Jakabovics, A.; Voith, R.; and Zielenbach, S. 2019. "Mixed-Income LIHTC Developments in Chicago: A First Look at Their Income Characteristics and Spillover Impacts." In What Works to Promote Inclusive, Equitable Mixed-Income Communities, edited by Mark L. Joseph and Amy T. Khare, cluster #1, section A, no. 6.
Boarnet, M. G.; Bostic, R. W.; Burinskiy, E.; Rodnyansky, S.; and Prohofsky, A. 2018. "Gentrification near Rail Transit Areas: A Micro-Data Analysis of Moves into Los Angeles Metro Rail Station Areas." Research Reports, University of California National Center for Sustainable Transportation.
Bostic, R. W. and Molaison, D. Forthcoming. "Hurricane Katrina: Devastation, Possibilities and Prospects." In Economic and Risk Assessment of Hurricane Katrina, University of Southern California Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events.
Bostic, R.; Kim, A.; and Valenzuela, A. 2016. "An Introduction to the Special Issue: Contesting the Streets 2: Vending and Public Space in Global Cities." Cityscape 18(1): 3–10.
Bostic, R. W. and Ellen, I. G. 2014. "Introduction: Special Issue on Housing Policy in the United States." Journal of Housing Economics 24: 1–3.
Bostic, R. 2014. "CDBG at 40: Opportunities and Obstacles." Housing Policy Debate 24(1): 297–302. doi:10.1080/10511482.2013.866973.
Bostic, R. W. 2014. "Resilient Economic Development: Challenges and Opportunities." In University of Illinois Chicago Urban Forum, edited by M. Pagano. University of Illinois Press.
Bostic, R. W. and McFarlane, A. 2013. "The Proposed Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Regulatory Impact Analysis." Cityscape: A Journal of Policy Development and Research 15(3): 257.
Bostic, R. W.; Thornton, R. L.; Rudd, E. C.; and Sternthal, M. J. 2012. "Health in All Policies: The Role of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and Present and Future Challenges." Health Affairs 31(9): online.
Graddy, E., with Bostic, R. W. 2010. "The Role of Private Agents in Affordable Housing Policy." Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 20, special issue: 81–99.
Bostic, R.; Gabriel, S.; and Painter, G. 2009. "Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth, and Consumption: New Evidence from Micro Data." Regional Science and Urban Economics 39(1): 79–89.
Bostic, R. W., with Engel, K.; McCoy, P.; A. Pennington-Cross; and Wachter, S. 2008. "State and Local Anti-Predatory Lending Laws: The Effect of Legal Enforcement Mechanisms." Journal of Economics and Business 60(1–2): 47–66.
An, X. and Bostic, R. W. 2008. "GSE Activity, FHA Feedback, and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals." Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 36(2): 207–31.
An, X.; Bostic, R. W.; Deng, Y.; and Gabriel, S. 2007. "GSE Loan Purchases, the FHA, and Housing Outcomes in Targeted, Low-Income Neighborhoods." In Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, edited by G. Burtless and J.R. Pack. Brookings Institute Press.
Sloane, D. C., with Bostic, R. W. and Lewis, L. B. 2007. "The Neighborhood Dynamics of Hospitals as Land Owners." Lincoln Land Institute publication.
Bostic, R. W., with Longhofer, S. D. and Redfearn, C. 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics." Real Estate Economics 35 (2): 183–208.
Bostic, R. W. and Prohofsky, A. 2006. "Enterprise Zones and Individual Welfare: A Case Study of California." Journal of Regional Science 46 (2): 175–203.
Bostic, R. W. and Gabriel, S. A. 2006. "Do the GSEs Matter to Low-Income Housing Markets? An Assessment of the Effects of GSE Loan Purchase Activity on California Housing Outcomes." Journal of Urban Economics 59: 458–75.
Black, H.; Bostic, R. W.; Robinson, B.; and Schweitzer, R. 2005. "Do CRA-Related Events Affect Shareholder Wealth? The Case of Bank Mergers." The Financial Review 40(4): 575–86.
Bostic, R. W. with Robinson, B. 2004. "Community Banking and Mortgage Credit Availability: The Impact of CRA Agreements." Journal of Banking and Finance 28: 3069–95.
Bostic, R. W., with Calem. P. S. and Wachter, S. M. 2004. "Hitting the Wall: Credit as an Impediment to Homeownership." In Building Assets, Building Credit: Creating Wealth in Low-Income Communities, edited by N. Retsinas and E. Belsky. Joint Center for Housing Studies and Brookings Institution Press.
Bostic, R. W., with Redfearn, C. 2004. "Book Review [The Color of Credit: Mortgage Discrimination, Research Methodology and Fair Lending Enforcement, by Stephen L. Ross and John Yinger]." Journal of Regional Science 44(1):162–65.
Bostic, R. W., with Aaronson, D.; Huck, P.; and Townsend, R. 2004. "Supplier Relationships and Small Business Use of Trade Credit." Journal of Urban Economics 55(1): 46–67.
Bostic, R. W., with Barakova, I.; Calem, P.; and Wachter, S. 2003. "Does Credit Quality Matter for Homeownership?" Journal of Housing Economics 12(4): 318–36.
Bostic, R. W. 2003. "A Test of Cultural Affinity in Home Mortgage Lending." Journal of Financial Services Research 23(2): 89–112.
Bostic, R., with Robinson, B. 2003. "Do CRA Agreements Increase Lending?" Real Estate Economics 31(1): 23–51.
Bostic, R. W., with Calem, P. S. 2003. "Privacy Restrictions and the Use of Data at Credit Repositories." In Credit Reporting Systems and the International Economy, edited by Margaret J. Miller. Boston: MIT Press.
Bostic, R. W., with Martin, R. 2003. "Black Homeowners as Gentrifying Force? Neighborhood Dynamics in the Context of Minority Homeownership." Urban Studies 40(12).
Bostic, R. W. 2002. "Equal Access to Credit." In 25 Years of Credit Research, edited by Mike Staten. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
Bostic, R., with Canner, G. B. 2000. "Consolidation in Banking: How Recent Changes Have Affected the Provision of Banking Services." The Neighborworks Journal.
Bostic, R., with Avery, R. B. and Canner, G. B. 2000. "Highlights of a Survey of the Performance and Profitability of CRA-Related Lending." Housing America Update.
Bostic, R., with Avery, R. B. and Canner, G. B. 2000. "CRA Special Lending Programs." Federal Reserve Bulletin 86: 711–31.
Bostic, R., with Avery, R. B.; Calem, P. S.; and Canner, G. B. 2000. "Credit Scoring: Statistical Issues and Evidence from Credit Bureau Files." Real Estate Economics 28: 523–47.
Bostic, R., with Canner, G. B. 1998. "New Information on Small Business and Small Farm Lending: The 1996 CRA Data." Federal Reserve Bulletin 84(1): 1–21.Bostic, R., with Avery, R. B. and Samolyk, K. A. 1998. "The Role of Personal Wealth in Small Business Finance." Journal of Banking and Finance 22: 1019–61
Other Fed Work
Bostic, R.; Bower, S.; Shy, O.; Wall, L.; and Washington, J. September 2020. "Digital Payments and the Path to Financial Inclusion." Promoting Safer Payments Innovation Series no. 20-1.
Raphael Bostic. "Quantitative Frightening?," macroblog. January 16, 2019.
Raphael Bostic. "What Does the Current Slope of the Yield Curve Tell Us?," macroblog. August 23, 2018.
Raphael Bostic. "Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework" macroblog series:
"Framing the Question." March 26, 2018.
"Part 2: The Principle of Bounded Nominal Uncertainty." March 27, 2018.
"Part 3: An Example of Flexible Price-Level Targeting." March 28, 2018.
"Part 4: Flexible Price-Level Targeting in the Big Picture." April 2, 2018.
Raphael Bostic. "A Big-Picture Look at the Economy. " ECONversations. February 21, 2018.
Economy Matters Podcast Episodes
Raphael Bostic (interviewer) and Anthony Orlando. "'These Local Problems Do Have Some National Solutions': A Conversation about Inequality." February 27, 2020.
Raphael Bostic (interviewer) and James Fallows. "Wings over America: A Conversation with Author James Fallows." . January 2, 2020.
Raphael Bostic (interviewer) and Alessandro Acquisti. "Speaking Publicly on Privacy: A Conversation about Digital Privacy." April 2, 2019.
Raphael Bostic (interviewer) and Jerome Adams. "Health Is Wealth": A Conversation with the U.S. Surgeon General." January 3, 2019.
Raphael Bostic (interviewer) and Raj Chetty. "'A Kid Should Have a Fair Shot': A Discussion of Economic Mobility." October 22, 2018.
Raphael Bostic (interviewer) and David Lusk. "'It's a Really Dramatic Change': A Discussion of the Economics of Food." October 12, 2018.
Raphael Bostic. "'It's a Special Job': A Conversation with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic." April 27, 2018.
Message from the President
Raphael Bostic. "On Long and Variable Lags in Monetary Policy." November 15, 2022.
Raphael Bostic. "Risk Management Is Key to Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times." August 30, 2022.
Raphael Bostic. "Monetary Policy amid Changing Labor Market Dynamics." May 24, 2022.
Raphael Bostic. "Observe and Adapt: Appropriate Monetary Policy in the Face of Inflation." February 1, 2022.
Raphael Bostic. "Defining the Pursuit of Maximum Employment." September 27, 2021.
Raphael Bostic. "A Moral and Economic Imperative to End Racism." June 12, 2020.
Raphael Bostic. "A Message from Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic." March 17, 2020.