Oh, for a little clarity. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Employment Situation Report this morning, indicating that the U.S. economy created jobs at a middling pace suggesting neither clear weakness nor obvious strength.
The payroll survey of establishments -- which, as the name suggests measures employment from data on actual business payrolls (as opposed to the household survey which is based on a much smaller sample of questionaires) -- recorded a net gain 144,000 jobs for the month. The June data was revised upward to 96,000 (from 78,000) and the July figure to 73,000 (from 32,000). That seems like good news, but these stats are well short of the magic number of 225,000 or so that is generally felt to define the neighborhood of really healthy growth. (Why that number? It 's based on a calculation of what level of job growth is required to keeep the unemployment rate from changing if other factors, like labor force participation rates, are held fixed.)
So what did we learn about the state of the economy? Basically nothing. We hit a rocky patch in the 2nd quarter, there are signs that that was maybe just "a soft spot" on the way to a pretty good year, but ,dang it, who is willing to bet the ranch on it?
Any gamblers out there?