Two new pieces of information released yesterday and today pretty much continue the string of summer data, suggesting an economy that is moving forward, albeit at a pace short of expectations from earlier in the year.
This from the Department of Commerce's advance monthly retail sales report for August:
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $335.2 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.7%) from the previous month, but up 4.9 percent (±1.0%) from August 2003. Total sales for the June through August 2004 period were up 6.1 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The June to July 2004 percent change was revised from +0.7 percent (±0.8%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%).
Here's a bit more on the report from the Associated Press (by way of the Detroit Free Press):
Excluding sales of cars, which can swing widely from month to month, sales by other merchants rose by 0.2 percent in August. That was down from a 0.3 percent increase in July but still marked the fourth straight monthly rise.
This morning the Federal Reserve released the August report on industrial production and capacity utilization. No big news here, really:
Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in August following an upwardly revised increase of 0.6 percent in July. After decreasing 0.2 percent in June, manufacturing output gained 0.9 percent in July and 0.5 percent in August. The output at utilities fell significantly for a third consecutive month in August, and mining output moved down after a strong increase in July. At 116.6 percent of its 1997 average, industrial production in August was 5.2 percent above its level a year earlier. Capacity utilization for total industry was unchanged in August, at 77.3 percent, a rate 3.8 percentage points below its 1972-2003 average.
Although nobody has seen fit to organize a parade, overall things seem to okay, as evidenced by this passage from today's online Washington Times:
Private economists believe the economy is growing at an annual rate ranging between 3 percent to just over 4 percent in the July-to-September quarter, which would mark an improvement over the 2.8 percent pace recorded in the second quarter of this year.