Forecasting the US economy not enough challenge? Then take a page from Michael Mussa (formerly of the GSB), and forecast the world economy! In a paper presented for the Institute of International Economics yesterday, Mussa had this to say:
For 2004, the world economy appears set to achieve at least 5 percent real GDP growth on a year-over-year basis—slightly better than the 4¾ percent forecast in early April and the strongest in two decades. But, higher oil prices and declining momentum in the US and Chinese economies suggest that global growth may fall slightly short of the 4 percent previously forecast for 2005.
The report includes separate discussion of the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Take a look.