Yesterday I posted a piece on the options-market's guess of where the federal funds rate will be after today's FOMC meeting. If markets are guessing right, of course, there won't be much of a surprise on the rate decision today -- the expectations is that 25 basis points are in the bag. But the other post yesterday (on the paper by Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack) suggested that the communications that attend the actual rate decision are at least as important as -- maybe more important than -- the decision itself. If events unfold as expected, all the action will be in the language of the press release that follows the meeting.
As of yesterday, federal-funds futures options had the implied probablility of another 25 basis point in November at about 68%. It will be interesting to see what that statement is, and whether expectations about the November meeting move as a result. Stay tuned -- we'll report on that tomorrow.