Lots of news on Friday, not all of it clearly pointing in the same direction. On the one hand, the Commerce Department released the advance report on September retails sales. This is a pretty encouraging picture (click on it, and you'll see a version you can actually read):
The University of Michigan's September surveys on consumer confidence were not so obviously cheery. The folks who run the survey, however, tried to provide some perspective.
Consumer confidence fell slightly in September due to rising oil prices and greater concerns about the sluggish pace of growth in employment. "The September loss in confidence was quite small, reflecting a continuation of the sideward movement that has dominated since the start of the year rather than indicating an emerging downturn," according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. The overall level of the Sentiment Index in the September survey was nearly identical to its average during the past eight months.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 94.2 in the September 2004 survey, slightly below the 95.9 in August, but well above the 87.7 recorded last September. The Expectations Index, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 88.0 in September, nearly equal to the 88.2 in August , and above the 80.8 recorded in September of 2003. Compared with a year ago, the Sentiment Index posted a healthy 7.4% gain, and the Expectations Index was up by 8.9%.
As if that wasn't enough information for one day, the Federal Reserve also released the September statistics on industrial production and capacity utilization.
Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in September after having edged down 0.1 percent in August. The production index was revised up slightly in June and July, but it is now estimated to have been slightly lower in August than previously reported. Manufacturing output declined 0.3 percent in September, and mining output dropped 2.3 percent.
Her too, a little perspective might be in order.
The recent spate of hurricanes appears to have had a noticeable restraining effect on production last month. In particular, output dropped sharply in the oil and gas extraction, chemical materials, and petroleum refining industries; combined, the September decreases for these industries reduced the rate of change in total industrial production about 0.3 percentage point.
Add it all up together and equity markets decided to rally. Treasury yields bounced up a bit, with the accompanying commentary suggesting that Fed will soon decide that continued rate hikes are in order.
But here's a pop quiz for you. Wouldn't stronger consumption demand result in higher interest rates anyway? Do all interest rate stories really start and end at the Fed?