The Conference Board has released its report on economic indicators for September. The headlines -- including the one on this post -- focused on the fact that the forward-looking index declined for the fourth month in a row. The index on September activity, however, looked pretty good.
The leading index fell again in September, the fourth consecutive decline, and the weakness in the last four months has become more widespread. However, these declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion.
The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, increased again in September and its growth continues to be widespread. Real GDP growth slowed to a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, but appears to have picked up again in the third quarter.
There is lots of commentary in this article from Bloomberg, including this:
With less than two weeks until the presidential election... economists including Fed Governor Ben S. Bernanke said the economy is reflecting concern about growth prospects. Crude oil prices surged about 67 percent so far this year, which along with higher natural gas prices acted like an $85 billion tax on the economy, Bernanke said.
``The increased cost of imported energy has reduced the growth in U.S. aggregate spending and real output this year by something between half and three-quarters of a percentage point,'' Bernanke said at Darton College in Albany, Georgia.
Governor Bernanke's speech is posted here, but if you are more the aural type, the Bloomberg article has a link to the audio.