I've added a link on this site to Nouriel Roubiuni's Global Economics Blog. I don't always agree with Nouriel -- a comment that applies to almost everyone -- but I always enjoy reading his opinions -- a comment the definitely does not apply to everyone.
Here's a recent post of his that I think I do agree with.
In conclusion, the effect of oil shocks has been underestimated in terms of their impact in the past; and they may be underestimated again today by central bankers and wishful thinkers.
Take a look at the graph below (which many of you have seen), that plots the time series of relative energy prices over the past 35 years. The arrows in the graph identify periods when relative energy prices spiked by at least 10%. The shaded bars in the picture identify recessions, as identified by the National Brueau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Notice a pattern? Feeling lucky?