If you are looking for cheery items to put on your economic outlook list, try the November Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The diffusion index of current activity, the survey's broadest measure of overall manufacturing conditions, decreased from 28.5 in October to 20.7 in November... The survey's other broad indicators remained positive but declined slightly. The new orders index fell almost three points, and the shipments index fell four points. Unfilled orders remained steady; about the same percentage of firms reported increases and decreases...
In a special question this month, firms were asked about their expectations for further cost increases next year (see Special Questions). More than 90 percent of the executives polled expect raw material prices (including energy) to increase next year..
Well, that doesn't sound so cheery. The survey respondents are, nonetheless, undeterred.
Overall expectations for the next six months improved markedly...Nearly 60 percent of the manufacturing executives expect increases in activity over the next six months, compared to 40 percent in the previous month. Other future indicators showed similar increases...