Last week, San Francisco Fed president Janet Yellen gave a speech laying out what she sees as the forces that are currently keeping the U.S. economy from firing on all cylinders.
So today, I’d like to spend a few moments exploring... what factors might be putting a drag on demand in the U.S., necessitating a lot of stimulus just to achieve trendlike growth. I’m going to focus on five factors altogether. Three appear to be having an impact now and may continue to do so next year; they are: higher oil prices, “restraint” in investment spending, and a large and growing trade gap. The remaining two have not had an impact yet, but they have the potential to exert a drag on the economy going forward; they are: the low personal saving rate and the waning impetus from fiscal policy.
Not on her list, though, is much handwringing about the prospects for a new bout of inflationary pressures.
This uptick in core CPI inflation bears close watching, but it’s not a big concern at this point for a few reasons. First, inflation figures can be a bit volatile from month to month, so two months of data aren’t enough to establish a trend. Second, another measure of core inflation—based on the personal consumption expenditures index—has been more modest. Third, as I mentioned earlier, supply-side effects should raise inflation only temporarily unless they become embedded in inflation expectations. And longer-run inflationary expectations seem to be well-anchored because the Fed’s strong commitment to maintaining price stability is well understood.
Where does she end up on the policy implications? Somewhere that probably sounds familiar by now.
What did the business-headline writers hear? This one from Reuters was representative.
Fed's Yellen says U.S. rates have to rise further
I guess that's why you should read the speech.
We know that the current policy stance is accommodative, and that, as the expansion firms up, that degree of accommodation will have to diminish. But, by how much and at what pace? This will depend importantly on what actually happens to employment, output and inflation going forward.
If the various drags on aggregate demand I’ve been discussing show signs of lessening, it may be appropriate to remove accommodation more rapidly. If they continue to weigh on the economy, or worsen, there will be more opportunities for the Committee to pause.