My colleague Owen Humpage recently published an Economic Commentary article titled "A Hitchhiker's Guide to the U.S. Current Account Problem." Here's the setup:
This Economic Commentary offers a hitchhiker’s guide to the U.S. current account problem for those who want to follow along, but are not inclined to take the wheel. I show how foreigners finance our propensity to import, stopping long enough to make the connection between our budget and current account deficits. I explain why growing current account deficits and expanding inflows of foreign savings are not indefinitely sustainable, and why big deficits imply big corrections. Throughout the trip, however, I emphasize that we simply have no basis for determining when, how fast, or how jarring any adjustment might be. Those who claim a definitive word on that topic may just be spinning their wheels.
I suppose that last comment applies to me as well.