The Bureau of Labor Statistics released this bit of welcome news today:
The U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.3 percent in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The decrease followed a 0.2 percent decline in November and was led by lower petroleum prices. Export prices were up 0.2 percent in December after rising 0.3 percent the previous month.
But then there was this today as well (via Bloomberg):
Crude oil surged above $48 a barrel, a six-week high, on forecasts that colder weather will move into the eastern U.S. next week, bolstering demand for heating fuel.
Below-normal temperatures will prevail in the Northeast, where 80 percent of U.S. home heating-oil use occurs, from Jan. 18 through Jan. 22, according to the National Weather Service. Prices also rose on concern that Iraqi shipments may be cut as insurgents try to disrupt the election on Jan. 30...
"There was clear resistance around $47 and once we broke through there were a lot of buy orders,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. "We're off to the races and heading to $50.''
Yikes! I guess this could be the beginning of a good test of my hypothesis, but I'd really just as soon do without the extra data.