From the Wall Street Journal Online:
In its latest Asian Development Outlook, the ADB said gross domestic product for Asia, excluding Japan, will grow by between 6.5% and 6.9% over the next three years.
The bank's latest growth forecasts are slightly higher than its previous forecasts issued last December and September.
For 2005, the ADB forecasts average GDP growth of 6.5% for developing Asia, up from its forecast last September of 6.2%. The upbeat forecast stems from momentum generated by the region last year when GDP growth averaged 7.3%. That was the fastest growth rate since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis...
China's GDP will grow 8.5% in 2005, 8.7% next year and 8.9% in 2007 following growth of 9.5% in 2004 as efforts by policy makers there to cool the largest economy in developing Asia have had only a modest impact.
Elsewhere in Asia, the ADB forecast that countries hit by the devastating tsunami in late December will emerge quickly from the devastation.
The report contained some predictions about the U.S. monetary policy...
It assumes the Federal Reserve will continue its measured pace of monetary tightening in the first half of 2005 and expects the federal-funds rate will reach 3.75% by the end of 2005 from 2.75% currently and average 3.1% for the year.
But the Fed isn't likely to stop there due to growing inflation pressures. The ADB assumes an average federal-funds target rate of 4.2% in 2006 and 4.4% in 2007.
... and the Financial Times notes this interesting bit (subscription required):
In a separate, technical chapter on the merits of export-led versus domestic demand-led growth, the ADB poured cold water on recent rhetoric from countries such as Thailand about the significance of their policies to boost domestic demand.
Examining three decades of statistics, the bank concluded that in the past few years only the export sector had fuelled growth in South Korea and Thailand. It said there was no evidence that export-led strategies contributed to the Asian crisis, and noted that the pre-crisis period was marked by over-expansion in domestic demand and a deterioration of net exports. Sustained expansion needed growth in both exports and domestic demand, the ADB said.