Apparently that's how the market was feeling yesterday. The Conference Board's report on the March index of Leading Economic Indicators was pretty bad. From Bloomberg:
The index of leading U.S. economic indicators declined by the most in two years in March as a rise in gasoline prices made consumers less confident.
The New York-based Conference Board said today its gauge of the likely performance of the economy over the next three to six months fell 0.4 percent after a 0.1 percent rise in February...
Record gasoline prices led to a slowdown in spending on goods and services last month. An increase in claims for unemployment insurance, fewer housing permits and a drop in stock prices also contributed to the index's seventh monthly decrease in the last year, signaling the economy is poised to slow.
That said, the other economic news of the day was much better, and apparently that's what the markets were looking for. From BRIEFING.COM:
Treasury Market Slammed on Positives: The market took a sizable hit on the day, as stocks took off, oil prices were lower on the day, as well as on a strong, relevant Philly Fed [survey] (25.3 versus the expected 10.0 and whisper of 8), and a scolding Greenspan.
But it was the initial claims for unemployment benefits that may have left the largest impression. From yet another Bloomberg report:
The number of U.S. workers filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined to 296,000 in the week ended April 16 from 332,000, the Labor Department said. A reading of 330,000 was expected, based on the median forecast of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News...
"Certainly, the claims number points to surprising strength in the labor market,'' said James Collins, an interest-rate futures analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in Chicago. The firm is a unit of the world's biggest financial-services company.
Hope springs eternal.
Note: There is more on the Conference Board report at The Big Picture and at The Skeptical Speculator.
UPDATE: And yet more at The Capital Spectator.