The options market on federal funds futures continues to tell us that another twenty-five basis points at the the June FOMC meeting is a really good bet. The October contract had an interesting week. The probability of pause somewhere over the August-September meetings took an inexplicable (to me) run early in the week, but then fell back on the strong trade and sales reports. When all was said and done, the end of last week looked a lot like the end of the week before.
Here's the pictures:
And here's the data:
Download july_pdfs_051605.xls
Download october_pdfs_051605.xls