Not much new to report on the implied forecasts of the federal funds rate.  The probability for twenty-five basis points at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting continue its slow ascent to a near-lock (according to the market).  There was a bit of action on the October contract following last week's PPI and CPI reports, but in the end it's still a horse race.

The pictures:

July_9

October_3


The data:
Download july_pdfs_052305.xls
Download october_pdfs_052305.xls

If you are interested in background material, follow the links in last week's post.

Hat tip to Pat Higgins, ably providing the pictures to me as Erkin Sahinoz takes a well-deserved break.