... and Daniel Drezner links to a Financial Times article showing the "no" vote with a slight edge:
According to the latest opinion poll published on Sunday, the No camp commands 52 per cent support in France.
That's not the only vote coming up, and the news is worse (for constitution proponents) elsewhere:
Dutch opinion polls show resistance to the treaty hardening. On Friday a poll by TNS NIPO, for RTL television news, had the No campaign with 54 per cent and Yes at 27 per cent. The same day a poll by Interview NSS for Nova television gave No 63 per cent and Yes 37 per cent.
As Professor Drezner says, "Developing... until next week."
UPDATE: For one Dutch perspective, see Brian's comment on this post.
UPDATE II: Tim Worstall thinks the answer will be "yes," but links to a news.telegraph article that confirms the French government is worried indeed. Also, be sure to read edward's (from A Fistful of Euros) remarks in the comment section of this post.
UPDATE III: More on the tilting toward no from the Guardian Unlimited, courtesy of JustOneMinute.