Not much change from last week.  Together, between 75% and 80% of the probabilities estimated from the October options contract on federal funds futures are on levels of 3.5% or 3.75% (cumulatively) by that time.  Interestingly, the estimates are telling us the probability of continued "measured pace" increases through the September FOMC meeting made a comeback after the weak employment report on Friday.  Sort of strange, but consistent with the behavior of the bond market over the course of the day. 

Here's the pictures:

July_11

October_5

Here's the data:

Download july_pdfs_060605.xls
Download october_pdfs_060605.xls

And if you are new to this, and are interested in more information on these calculations, you can find it here.