That, in any event, is where estimates obtained from options on federal funds futures are indicating the funds rate target will be by October. By the time of last Friday's benign report for the June producer price index and positive surprise for June industrial production, the probability associated with another fifty basis points over the August and September meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee had already spiked upward on good news about U.S. trade and federal deficits, and CPI inflation and retail sales.
The picture:
And, for those who care, the data: