I'm a little late posting these today because I have been attending a workshop on -- using market data to uncover expectations about future federal funds rates. As a bonus, though, we have our first pass at the probabilities implied by options on the November contract on fed funds futures, which will include the November 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It looks like the market doesn't expect 3.75% to be the end of the trail.
The pictures:
And the data:
Download october_pdfs_072505.xls