In his email alerts, Stan Jonas -- who probably knows more about the federal funds rate derivatives than anyone -- says "Fed Done By December... Certain..." The market sentiment derived from the latest Carlson-Craig-Melick estimates from funds-futures options are definitely moving in the that direction:
If you exclude the possibility of a pause at the September FOMC meeting, things are even more dramatic:
Yikes. It's hard to keep up with all the (very good) blogging on the potential economic fallout from this disaster, so I suggest just keeping up with the gang from my blog roll. You might start with William Polley, with Calculated Risk, and with The Big Picture, all of whom provide multiple links to other good commentary.
UPDATE: Here is the data for each of the pictures above.