There's a technical term for the likes of today's report on the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment for September: Holy smokes! The ugliness, courtesy of Reuters:
U.S. consumer confidence plummeted to a 13-year low in early September, battered by record gasoline prices and the full force of Hurricane Katrina, a report showed on Friday...
The University of Michigan's closely-watched consumer sentiment index eased to 76.9 in September from 89.1 in August, well below Wall Street forecasts and even the 81.8 recorded after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington.
Current conditions dropped to the lowest level since December 2003 while the expectations index plummeted to its lowest point since February 1992.
If this was bad news, equity markets forgot to notice. Every major index finished up for the day:
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Perhaps the better-than-expected current account report for the second quarter helped, but this explanation, from Briefing.com, feels about right:
... the lowest reading on consumer sentiment since 1992 stalled early buying efforts; but since the market foresaw a considerable Katrina-induced decline and the data don't correlate well with consumption patterns, investors ultimately looked past the report.
If you're a central banker, however, the inflation expectations part of the Michigan survey does make you think twice. This comes from the survey newsletter:
Consumers expected an inflation rate of 4.6% during the year ahead in early September, a substantial jump from the 3.1% recorded in August, and the highest inflation rate expected since 1990.
On the other hand:
Importantly, the average annual rate of inflation expected over the next five years hardly changed, inching up to 3.1% in September from 2.8% in August...
That's a comfort, but the bond markets did sit up and take notice. Also from Reuters:
Treasury debt sold off for a third session on Friday, sending benchmark yields to one-month highs as bearish technicals and growing inflation fears obscured a Katrina-related plunge in U.S. consumer confidence.
The University of Michigan's sentiment index fell to a 13-year low in September, but the market was too worried about an accompanying spike in inflation expectations to glean any benefit from Americans' gloomy assessment of the economy.
An overreaction? More to follow.