I have been utterly remiss in my lack of attention to the elections in Germany today. Here, from Deutsche Welle, is what is at stake for the rest of us:
The European Union was looking on anxiously on Sunday, as Germans go to the polls, concerned about the impact that a chancellor Angela Merkel might have with the bloc deep in crisis.
Utmost in the minds of Germany's EU partners, analysts say, is whether the new leadership can revive the euro zone's biggest economy, how it will manage ties with France and Britain, and what it will do for Turkey's future in the bloc...
Politically the question is: what new balance will be established in Germany's key relationships with Britain and France? Berlin and Paris have traditionally been the EU's driving force, but their shared economic woes, vehement opposition to the Iraq war, and France's rejection of the EU's proposed constitution have undermined that influence.
The smart money late in the game here is on Angela Merkel, the chair of the Christian Democratic Union. The take on a Merkel victory, from the sunday herald online:
While the EU, now dominated by centre-right governments and under the stewardship of conservative commission president José Manuel Barroso, is pushing for free-market reforms, Schroeder has clung on to Germany’s “social market” model, with its high levels of state spending and social protection.
Having come to office promising to emulate Tony Blair’s “third way” policies, Schroeder found it hard to implement reforms, and ended up with soaring unemployment and a budget deficit that broke the EU’s rules – which Germany itself had largely drafted...
Schroeder has also opposed key EU laws including the services and takeover directives, and has often lashed out at Brussels “bureaucrats”. Merkel will be more supportive of current commission thinking – though there is no guarantee she will be any more successful in selling unpopular policies to the German people.
In foreign policy, too, there could be changes. Schroeder was initially a Blair ally, but they fell out over the Iraq war, which Schroeder vigorously opposed, using it as an election issue three years ago. The Iraq crisis strengthened the Berlin-Paris axis within the EU, but the configuration could change again if Merkel wins in Germany, and the ambitious Nicolas Sarkozy then defeats Jacques Chirac in France.
A Merkel-Sarkozy-Blair triangle may then emerge, much more united on economic reforms and also more Atlanticist in terms of foreign policy. In this last week of campaigning, Merkel has been appealing to those Germans who want to mend fences with America after the crisis of Iraq.
Where Merkel and Blair will not see eye to eye, however, is over Turkey, which is due to begin membership talks with the EU on October 3. Blair believes it is essential to bring Turkey into the EU as a gesture to the Muslim world . Merkel, on the other hand, has campaigned hard against Turkish membership...
A Merkel victory today could change things, especially if her policies put new vigour into the economy and realign it politically with what is now the European mainstream, firmly to the right of centre.
For a little background on the German electoral system, check out A Dummy's Guide to German Elections. For ongoing commentary, analysis, and general good stuff, I'd turn to the various posts at A Fistful of Euros.