You are probably already aware that formal negotiations to bring full European Union membership to Turkey are a go. As the Wall Street Journal reports this morning (page A18 in the print edition), a successful conclusion is far from assured...
The earliest Turkey could ask to join the EU is 2014, and with France and Austria -- whose populations are largely opposed -- promising referendums on Ankara's accession, it actually may never get in.
... but some wonder whether it matters:
Turkey may never actually join the European Union, despite its membership talks finally getting under way this week. Yet that prospect doesn't worry many foreign investors, who believe the engagement alone will help transform the Turkish economy.
In the past few years, Turkey has largely left behind its reputation as an economic debacle by stabilizing inflation and implementing widespread overhauls...
Those overhauls -- from banking to criminal justice -- and the prospect of EU talks in turn created a virtuous circle by attracting a slew of foreign investors. And the opening of talks Monday gave Turkey's economy another boost. Yesterday, Turkey's index of 100 leading shares hit a high; the Turkish lira strengthened 0.6% against the dollar; and the yield on 2007 government bonds fell half a percentage point to their lowest level ever of 14.62%, indicating a reduced perception of risk...
"It's like a Buddhist statement, where the process of arriving is more important than the arriving," says Plamen Monovski, co-fund manager for Merrill Lynch's €1.67 billion ($1.99 billion) MLIIF Emerging Europe Fund.
At the same time, it appears that EU membership is not so popular with many of its members. From EurActiv:
According to a survey produced by the leading French market research company Sofres, citizens from five of the EU's six largest member states are predominantly negative about the effects of belonging to the EU. Results revealed that a large number of people remain unconvinced that the benefits of EU membership outweigh the disadvantages. Overall, the economic implications appeared to be the greatest cause for concern.
From the countries surveyed, Spain emerged as the most positive about its association with Europe - 57% of Spanish interviewees claimed that the standard of living in their country had improved as a result of EU membership. Spain was also the only nation whose respondents felt safer thanks to Europe. France proved to be the most eurosceptic nation with 43% of French interviewees answering that their country had become 'less prosperous' due to involvement with the EU. Conversely, only 29% believed that France had benefitted from its European ties.
Although more British participants claimed that the standard of living had improved since joining the EU (33% yes, 24% no), 48% said that their national identity and culture were under threat from closer European links. A majority of interviewees from all five member states agreed that prices had increased because of European integration.
So while we are contemplating the zen of the EU, here's another riddle for you: Can one benefit from being denied entry into a club populated by members who want out?
UPDATE: Let's not end on a sour note. This morning's news, from Bloomberg:
European service industries grew at the fastest pace in 14 months in September as banks, airlines and telephone providers helped the economy pick up from a second- quarter slowdown.
A measure of expansion in services, which make up about one- third of the euro-region economy, rose to a more-than-expected 54.7, the highest since July 2004, from a revised 53.4 in August, NTC Research Ltd., which compiled the measure for Reuters Group Plc, said today. A reading above 50 indicates growth.
The expansion in services followed a similar measure showing manufacturing grew the most in seven months in September.
There. I feel better now.