Today's economic news was the usual mixed bag. Housing prices rose in the third quarter, but at a slower pace than in the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management's report on non-manufacturing business activity in November suggested solid growth continues. Crude oil prices broke the $60 per barrel ceiling (again). And the yield on 10-year Treasury securities closed at 4.56%.
That last piece of information is the background for last week's jump northward in the probability that the federal funds rate will hit 4.75% at the conclusion of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:
The December and January meetings? Fuggedaboudit.
The estimates are, as usual, calculated from options on federal funds futures, and there is no indication yet that market participants are jumping off the rate hike train just yet.
The data, for your entertainment:
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