The November report on durable goods orders was about the last major non-housing data release of the year, and it was met with decidedly mixed emotions. On the one hand, here was the headline from CNNMoney:
Durable goods orders surge
Aircraft jump a catalyst for 4.4% November gain, the largest since May; results top expectations.
But then there was this, from the Washington Post:
Investors Snub Durable-Goods Report
What gives? I think the Nattering Naybob pretty much nailed it:
Durable orders +4.4% vs est. +1.5% vs prior +3.0% the biggest jump in six months, showing seemingly robust durable orders on demand for commercial aircraft +134%. However, upon further review, bookings for non defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, -2% vs. prior +1.2% and shipments -0.1% vs prior +1.6%.
A little bah humbug on the eve of Christmas? The Skeptical Speculator suggests a little perspective:
The November dip in non-defence capital goods orders ex aircraft notwithstanding, the pace of durable goods orders has been strong over the past year. Year to date, new orders for durable goods have risen 7.5 percent over the corresponding period last year. Over this time frame, non-defence capital goods ex aircraft have done even better, rising 10.4 percent.
The same might be said of yesterday's home sales report, which came in less than expectations and revealed that median home prices are on the wane. From Calculated Risk:
According to the Census Bureau report, New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.245 million vs. market expectations of 1.30 million...
On a year over year basis, November 2005 sales were 1% higher than November 2004...
This report is still reasonably strong.
Hey -- it's the season of good cheer. Feel free to see the glass half full.