It was an eventful day yesterday -- with a PPI report, a speech from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president Janet Yellen, and the release of the March FOMC meeting minutes. And boy, did those events leave their mark on market expectations. Here's a look at how the federal funds futures market responded, minute-by-minute:
You won't be surprised, then, to see that the probability of the Committee moving to 5.25% at its July meeting took a bit of a dive. The story from prices for options on federal funds futures, calculated using the usual Carlson-Craig-Melick methodology:
Oh, but wait! Another day, another piece of news, this time in the form of a CPI report that is, shall we say, smelling the joint up. Thus far:
More, undoubtedly, to come.
If you'd like the data in the pictures above -- and more -- here you go.