So the market seems to think.  The latest on the bets from options on federal funds futures:

     

June_13

August_1

   

Of course, tomorrow is another day.  So is Wednesday.

The data, plus:

Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_050506.ppt

Download Imp_pdf_slides_for_blog_050506.swf

Download implied_pdf_june_050506.xls

Download implied_pdf_aug_050506.xls

And what its all about, if you are wondering:

Download CCM.pdf