Last week bad inflation news, this week bad growth news. That was my first reaction to this morning's Manufacturer's Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report for April. From Reuters:
New orders for U.S.-made durable goods tumbled an unexpectedly large 4.8 percent in April...
Orders for durable items, those meant to last three years or longer, fell the most since January on big declines in civilian aircraft and computer and electronic products orders.
Even with transportation stripped out, orders for durable goods were down 1.1 percent...
The drop in durable goods orders surprised analysts. A Reuters poll had forecast a 0.5 percent drop in durable goods orders on weaker aircraft buying, but anticipated a 0.5 percent gain excluding transportation...
Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, viewed as a proxy for business spending, dropped a larger-than-expected 1.7 percent. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.8 percent decline in this number.
Um, that doesn't sound good. But, wait. A little perspective is in order:
Still, the durable goods data is notoriously volatile and April's overall drop followed an upwardly revised 6.6 percent surge in March.
In a potentially positive sign for future production, unfilled orders for durable goods rose $9.3 billion, or 1.5 percent, to the highest level since the data have been gathered in current form beginning in 1992. Unfilled orders have climbed in 11 of the last 12 months.
Plus, the death of the housing market may be greatly exaggerated:
... but new home sales were surprisingly strong last month, government reports showed on Wednesday...
The housing report showed the U.S. housing market defying predictions of a slowdown in April as new home sales rose 4.9 percent while prices climbed, although the supply of homes for sale hit a record.
Aah, feeling better now. But wait. Calculated Risk has this item: Bangalore: New Home Sales – Headline Is Deceptive, Momentum Is Weak. And the Reuters article has this:
A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that U.S. mortgage applications fell last week, driven by a steep decline in home buying loans despite a dip in long-term interest rates.
Shoot. Bottom line: Nothing about today's news made anything about this economy easier to figure out.