The basics on today's August CPI release, from the Cleveland Fed:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.4% annualized rate) in August. The median CPI is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.2% (3.0% annualized rate) in August. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 3.4%, the CPI 3.8%, and the CPI less food and energy 2.8%.
None of those numbers are particularly great, but the general sentiment seemed well captured by this headline: CPI shows benign inflation.
From my perspective, the bad news is that over 60 percent of the prices, weighted by expenditure share, grew at rates in excess of 3 percent. The potentially good news is that the distribution does seem to be shifting in the direction of more moderate price increases:
In June the modal price increase was in excess of 5 percent. In July it was in the 4-5 percent range. Last month it was in the 3-4 percent range. Could this be a sign that cost pressures from higher energy prices, higher housing prices, and such are working their way through the economy? Will September see the largest fraction of price changes drop into the 2-3 percent zone?
I can dream, can't I?