Edward Hugh thinks so. Though Edward notes that commentary from the ECB suggests otherwise -- an observation made about the Federal Reserve by Tim Duy -- the belief that interest rates will fall before they rise is being driven by a sense that economic growth in developed countries is slow and getting slower. Slower economic growth means less demand for borrowing by consumers and businesses, and hence lower real (or inflation-adjusted) interest rates. And, so the story goes, as with the U.S. and Europe, so with the world.
The opinion that a nontrivial slowdown may be in full bloom is not hard to find, but in case you are looking you can start in Europe -- at Alpha.Sources-CV (here and here), at Bonobo Land, and at The Skeptical Speculator. And don't forget the UK.
As for the US, I could just say Nouriel Roubini and leave it at that, but if you are particularly interested in the global connections you can soak in Martin Wolf's take from Economist's View. On the interest rate part of the scenario, here's the view from The Capital Spectator:
Let's start with the bond market, where the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 4.6% for the first time since February. In fact, the 10-year yield has been on a slippery slope for since July, when a 5.2% current yield prevailed early in the month. The catalyst for the decline is, of course, the ongoing stream of economic reports that show the economy is slowing. (The latest is this morning's update on new orders for durable goods, which tumbled for the second straight month in August--the first back-to-back tumble in more than two years.)
I'll tell you the truth -- that durable goods report was not to my liking, as the weakness appears to be fairly broad-based:
I hear you: Don't get carried away with one report. I'm with you, but I will note that one of the keys to the whole soft-landing scenario is that capital spending will stay robust even as residential investment and, to a lesser degree, consumer spending fade. If that doesn't happen, the arithmetic starts to get tricky, and those bets on lower interest rates may start to look pretty good.