In case you are unfamiliar with the NAHB-Wells Fargo Housing Market Index -- the latest installment of which being released today -- you can find a very nice description at the National Association of Homebuilders website. A few highlights:
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the housing industry, especially the single-family industry. The survey asks respondents to rate general economic and housing market conditions.
- The HMI is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices, calculated for three key single family series in the survey: Present Sales of New Homes, Sale of New Homes Expected in the Next 6 Months and Traffic of Prospective Buyers in New Homes...
- This formula puts each diffusion index on a convenient scale. If all respondents answer “Good/High” then the index is 100. If all respondents answer “Poor/Low” then the index is 0. If equal numbers of respondents answer “Good/High” and “Poor/Low” then the index is 50.
If, like me, you live in the Midwest, your neighborhood breached the 50 threshold in the middle of 2005. The country as a whole followed suit, but not until May of this year:
Note that the index values for both the Midwest and Northeast, having entered below-50 territory before the South and West, are actually improving (the East region for several months now). The West, the last region to register a more-bad-than-good index value -- and clearly the hottest of the hot markets according to the HMI -- in fact remains the only part of the country where things are continuing to deteriorate.
Given the low values of these index numbers this may be a weak reed to clutch, but doesn't that look like the very picture of bottoming out?
(Thanks to Brent Meyer for a big assist on this one.)