When the final tally on third-quarter U.S. GDP was released last Thursday, the story was once again the stumbling residential real estate sector and the seeming willingness of US consumers to just shake it off:
The trillion or so dollar question is, of course, will it (indeed, did it) last? Barry Ritholtz takes a peek at the early returns on retail sales activity and doesn't like what he sees:
Back in November, we noted that Retail Sales were the Canary in the Coal Mine...
But the early data has come in, and it is decidedly unimpressive: Despite early forecasts of double digit sales gains for this holiday season -- and some surprisingly strong but questionable data for November -- it appears that the 2006 season's sales will be disappointing.
That's according to data culled this past weekend from VisaUSA, and from ShopperTrak. Each used very different methodologies for forecasting retail sales.
Adds The Wall Street Journal (page B1 of the print edition):
Holiday spending between Thanksgiving and Christmas rose a disappointing 6.6% over last year, according to SpendingPulse, a retail-sales data service from MasterCard International's MasterCard Advisors Unit. Last holiday, sales climbed 8.7%. "People were expecting a lot more momentum," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for MasterCard Advisors. "Retail sales are growing, but at a more moderate pace compared with last holiday."
Surmises Calculated Risk, things are "definitely not 'just right'."