The pessimists get their time in today's Wall Street Journal (page A2 in the print edition):
Though some economists say the worst of the housing slump is over, the latest developments show that bad news from lenders and builders can still jolt the market. Steeper discounts from builders desperate to unload excess homes could add further downward pressure on prices, as could rising foreclosures, which dump more properties on the market.
"There are going to be more negative surprises," said Ivy Zelman, a Cleveland-based housing analyst for Credit Suisse who has long had a bearish view on the industry. "I think it's just getting started."
That is indeed a contrarian position. According to to the folks placing their bets by way of futures on the Case-Shiller price index, the worst of it is just about getting ended:
That's a picture of the rate of appreciation in the 10-market (Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington, DC) composite price index. To be sure, there are more negative reports expected -- price depreciation (as opposed to slower rates of appreciation) look to be the story for this year. But even on this score, the outlook has become more optimistic -- OK, less pessimistic -- over the past month:
Surprises do happen, of course, but thus far they are running in the right direction.