That seems to be the question after today's big negative surprise on March existing home sales. A sampling of reactions, from The Wall Street Journal:
This looks awful but it is surely just the reversal of the favorable weather effects which boosted Jan & Feb sales. After two months above the level implied by the pending sales index, March activity has undershot… Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics...
Weak data correcting last month's quirky lurch higher… Lead indicators such as mortgage applications and the NAHB survey suggest resales may now flatten out in the short term at least. --Richard Iley, BNP Paribas
Then there are those on the other hand:
Ugly is the simplest word for this report. The housing market is still in the tank and while every time we get a huge decline in sales we move closer to the bottom, it is hardly obvious when we will actually see that bottom. --Naroff Economic Advisors ...
The broad-based nature of the sales weakness suggests that this is more than just a weather story… A better gauge of underlying home price trends -- the S&P/Case-Shiller index -- shows a steady deterioration in home values in recent months and is now down 1% from last year. --Morgan Stanley Research
Actually, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller indexes -- futures based on the S&P/Case-Shiller composite index for the ten largest markets more specifically -- suggest that, relative to last month, the bottom on expected prices inched north just a little bit :
On that other hand (again), prices are expected to keep falling throughout the year. No rest for the weary.