Recent reports from several universities and the Florida Realtors Association point to further stabilization in one of the states hit hardest during the recession.
Florida consumer confidence rose three points in September to 74, following a revised increase of four points in August, according to the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Economic Research. Stabilization of the stock market, falling gas prices, and a bottoming out of home values in many parts of the state have helped, according to UF's Dr. Chris McCarty, who runs the survey.
Meanwhile, the August reading for the University of North Florida's leading economic indicators for Jacksonville showed a second consecutive monthly increase. The index is part of the Local Economic Indicators Project, developed and administered by Dr. Paul Mason, and tracks indices including orders for consumer and capital goods, consumer confidence, help wanted advertising, building permits, and new unemployment insurance applications.
There's also some positive news from Florida's housing market. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed Miami and Tampa home prices posted their second consecutive monthly gain in July. The index was still down 21 percent in Miami and 18 percent in Tampa from a year ago, however.
Florida's Association of Realtors reported that the state's existing home sales rose 28% in August. The group also reported a 45 percent increase in last month's statewide sales of existing condos compared with the previous year's sales figure.
But Florida's median sale price for existing homes last month was $147,400, a 22 percent decrease from 2008 to 2009. A year ago, the median sale price was $188,500. Sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to put downward pressure on home sales, the Realtors noted in their monthly commentary.
So green shoots may be emerging, but "without the fertilizer of population growth and construction, Florida's recovery will be painfully slow," according to the Sean Snaith, director of the Economic Competitiveness Institute at the University of Central Florida. Although home sales may be reaching the bottom, a strong rebound in construction activity is unlikely in the near term as population growth is currently absent. Stan Smith, an economist at the University of Florida, reported that the state's population dropped by 58,000 last year.
Overall, the data point to stabilization in economic activity at a low level, but we don't see compelling signs that the green shoots are ready to break through.
By Michael Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department