Southeastern Insights
September 2014
Southeastern Insights provides a broad summary of economic intelligence gathered through our network of business contacts and other sources throughout the Southeast during the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cycle. This report covers the period from July 31 to September 17.
General business conditions
On balance, business contacts described economic conditions as steadily improving, although some segments had slower than desired growth.
Retail contacts commented that softness persisted in consumer spending. Retailers attributed the softness to changing consumer habits and noted the need to add more entertainment and family-oriented features to their properties to attract greater traffic.
Regional manufacturing activity pulled back, according to Kennesaw State University's Southeast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The index declined by four points from June to July but remained in expansionary territory with a reading of 51.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while one below 50 indicates a contraction (see chart 1).
Reports of real estate activity were mixed. On the residential side, we heard mounting concerns over the lack of available developed land and increasing land costs. On the commercial end, apartment development continued to drive activity followed by retail, hotel, and office (see the table).
Home prices in the Sixth District continued their gradual trend of modest growth by increasing 6.3 percent from a year ago (see chart 2).
Employment
With a few exceptions, contacts stated that staffing levels were increasing slowly. The Sixth District added 27,100 jobs to payrolls from June to July, the same net gain as the previous month and only modestly higher than May (see chart 3). With the exception of Florida, whose payroll employment declined in July, all other states in the District gained employment during the same time period. Georgia’s employment is at the highest level since the recession ended with an increase of 1.7 percent over a year ago.
The Sixth District unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point from 6.5 percent in June to 6.7 percent in July. The unemployment rates in Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana, and Tennessee have been inching up for the past three consecutive months. Alabama experienced an increase in its rate from June to July while Florida’s rate remained unchanged (see chart 4).
We continue to hear stories of businesses experiencing difficulty finding qualified workers. Similar to our last report, the difficulty appears to be both intensifying and broadening across skills and the occupation spectrum, with contacts beginning to cite challenges in finding compliance, risk, and audit employees.
Input prices and wages
Certain sectors, most notably transportation and construction, reported seeing some increases in input costs, and respondents to the latest business inflation expectations survey indicated that, on average, they expect unit costs to rise 2.1 percent over the next 12 months (see chart 5).
While there were some reports of increasing input costs, pricing power remained weak. To protect against labor-related cost increases, some construction contacts indicated they were building in price protection clauses in their contracts.
The growing shortage of qualified job applicants was noted as putting upward pressure on starting wages in a number of specialized occupations. Companies that had to pay higher starting salaries to attract talent noted that they were having to address pay inequities in their salary structure to better align the salaries of existing employees to the higher salaries of new employees. This is particularly noted in the construction sector. Some companies also indicated having to be innovative in their compensation packages to attract and retain employees. Even so, most companies still report 2 to 3 percent merit increases.
Investment and credit
Capital investment continued to strengthen as business confidence improved. Most firms seem to be directing their capital expenditure dollars toward technology initiatives to increase productivity.
We heard increasing reports of credit terms and structures easing as banks become more active in the credit market. However, in general, small businesses were still constrained. In the Federal Reserve Board’s second quarter Senior Loan Officer Survey, loan officers reported easing lending standards and some improvement in small business loan demand relative to a year ago (see chart 6).
Business outlook
The outlook for the rate of business growth over the next three to six months continues to improve for our directors and contacts with the majority believing that sales growth will remain the same or higher in the near term (see chart 7).
The medium-term outlook for business growth remains positive as well, although a few contacts cited uncertainties such as health care costs and geopolitical issues. The share of Sixth District directors and contacts who believe that sales growth will remain the same or higher over the next two to three years was somewhat similar in September compared to July (see chart 8).
Contacts continue to express optimism about near- (three to six months) and medium-term (two to three years) growth prospects, although most do not expect significant acceleration in activity. We’ll continue to gather insights from our contact and will provide an update after the next FOMC meeting in October.
By Marycela Diaz-Unzalu, analyst, Regional Economic Information Network in the Atlanta Fed’s Miami Branch, and Shalini Patel, an economic policy analysis specialist in the Atlanta Fed’s research department