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Central Bank Business Survey Conference

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Conference Details

Date: November 8-9, 2023
Location: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Address:
1000 Peachtree Street NE
Atlanta, Georgia 30309

The annual Central Bank Business Survey Conference, organized in partnership with the Central Bank Business Survey and Liaison Programs, provides a forum for researchers, practitioners, and business liaisons to share their expertise in business survey administration and methodology and to discuss survey results and analysis. The conference is designed to promote open discussion and exchange of ideas on a range of topics, including but not limited to the collection and analysis of qualitative business intelligence, business survey results as an input into central bank decision-making processes, and innovations in survey administration and methodology.

For comments or questions, please email the CBBS conference mailbox.

Time Session
Tuesday, November 7
5:30 p.m. Opening reception and heavy hors d'oeuvres
 
Wednesday, November 8
8:00 a.m. Breakfast
8:30 Opening Remarks
David Altig, Executive Vice President and Chief Economic Adviser, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
8:45 Session 1: Using Surveys to Obtain Expectations
Chair: David Altig, Executive Vice President and Chief Economic Adviser, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Perceptions and expectations surveys with flexible questions: A way to generate experimental models, to know and understand the reality of companies
Ignacio Zapata, Senior Analyst, Central Bank of Chile

From convenience sample to representative sample: Can we improve the sampling of the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) inflation expectations survey?
Monique Reid, Lead Economist, South African Reserve Bank

Business expectations and uncertainty in developing and emerging economies
Jose Maria Barrero, Assistant Professor of Finance, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México
10:15 Break
10:30 Session 2: Methods and Tools to Analyze Surveys
Chair: Brent Meyer, Assistant Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Matching business survey and administrative data to analyze the recent evolution of firm liquidity
Marco Bottone, Economist, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy

Using natural language processing techniques to make the digitized history of liaison write-ups machine searchable
James Holloway, Deputy Head (State Offices & Liaison), Economic Analysis Department, Reserve Bank of Australia

Estimation of economic activity indexes from ordinal business survey data
Thomas Walstrum, Senior Business Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Noon Lunch
12:30 p.m. Lunch keynote
Ron S. Jarmin, Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer, US Census Bureau
1:00 Session 3: Leveraging Survey Data to Obtain Actionable Insight
Chair: Daniel Weitz, Survey Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The pandemic and its aftermath through the lens of business opinion
María José Orraca Corona, Economist, Bank of Mexico

Using insights from business surveys for monetary policy decision-making
Emily Kerr, Senior Business Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Decoding central banks' practices: A closer look at inflation expectation surveys
Ignacio Zapata, Senior Analyst, Central Bank of Chile

Understanding labor market conditions by surveying those who recruit
Jason Kosakow, Survey Director, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

On the effects of the minimum wage increase: Evidence from the Bundesbank's Firm Survey
Pawel Smietanka, Senior Economist, Bundesbank
3:30 Depart for Vue Orleans (Transportation will be provided to venue and dinner.)
6:30 Reception and dinner at Arnaud's Restaurant
 
Thursday, November 9
8:00 a.m. Breakfast
8:30 Fireside Chat
Raphael Bostic, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Thomas Barkin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
9:30 Break
9:45 Session 4: The Determinants/Formation of Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Chair: Brent Meyer, Assistant Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The formation of long-term inflation expectations in Switzerland: The impact of short run shocks, current business conditions, and preferences
Jean-Marc Falter, Member of Senior Management, Swiss National Bank

CPI releases and inflation expectations: Evidence from the DMP
Ivan Yotzov, Lead Economic Analyst, Bank of England
10:45 Break
11:00 Does monetary policy matter? Inflation expectations of firms in the Business Leaders' Pulse survey
Kevin MacLean, Economist, Survey and Economic Intelligence Division, Bank of Canada

Supply chain disruptions, energy price shocks, and inflation in Poland
Ɓukasz Postek, Economist, Bank of Poland
Noon Lunch
1:00 p.m. Session 5: How Does Elevated Inflation Impact Firm Pricing Behavior?
Chair: Grace Guynn, Survey Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Firms' inflation expectations and price-setting behaviour in Canada: Evidence from a business survey
Jane Voll, Regional Director, Bank of Canada

What is the connection between firms' inflation expectations and their own pricing plans? Evidence from one set of business surveys
Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, Vice President and Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Firms' price setting and inflation outlook from the Tankan survey
Kyosuke Shiotani, Economic Statistics Division, Bank of Japan
2:30 Break
2:45 Panel Discussion: Approaches to Gathering Intelligence across Regional Networks
Moderator: Rebekah Durham, Director, Regional Economic Information Network, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta New Orleans Branch
Discussants:
Anoop Mishra, Vice President and Regional Executive, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
James Holloway, Deputy Head (State Offices & Liaison), Economic Analysis Department, Reserve Bank of Australia
Roland Scheurer, Delegate for Regional Economic Relations, Swiss National Bank
3:45 Adjournment

Tom Barkin is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. He has held this position since 2018. Tom serves on the Fed's chief monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee, and is also responsible for bank supervision and the Federal Reserve's technology organization. He is “on the ground” continually in the Fed's Fifth District, which covers South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Washington DC, West Virginia and Maryland. His engagement in the region has brought real attention to areas facing economic challenges. Prior to joining the Richmond Fed, Tom was a senior partner and chief financial officer at McKinsey & Company, a worldwide management consulting firm, where he also oversaw McKinsey's offices in the southern United States. Tom earned his bachelor's, MBA and law degrees from Harvard University.

Raphael W. Bostic is president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. From 2012 to 2017, Bostic was the Judith and John Bedrosian Chair in Governance and the Public Enterprise at the Sol Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California (USC), where he was director of the master's of real estate development degree program and founding director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast. Bostic also served USC's Lusk Center for Real Estate as the interim associate director from 2007 to 2009 and as the interim director from 2015 to 2016. From 2016 to 2017, he was the chair of the center's Governance, Management, and Policy Process Department. From 2009 to 2012, Bostic was the assistant secretary for policy development and research at the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Bostic worked at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1995 to 2001, first as an economist and then a senior economist. He served as special assistant to HUD's assistant secretary of policy development and research in 1999. He was also a professional lecturer at American University in 1998. He graduated from Harvard University in 1987 with a combined major in economics and psychology. He earned his doctorate in economics from Stanford University in 1995.

Dr. Ron S. Jarmin has been the US Census Bureau's deputy director and chief operating officer since January 2019 and served as acting director from January 2021 to January 2022. He performed the nonexclusive functions and duties of the director from July 2017 to January 2019 and previously served as the associate director for economic programs. Jarmin led the team for the 2017 Economic Census, overseeing a move to 100 percent Internet data collection and leveraging enterprise investments to minimize system, application, and dissemination costs. Economic census data products provide the foundation for key measures of economic performance, including the nation's gross domestic product.

From 2011 to 2016, Jarmin served as assistant director for research and methodology. He oversaw a broad research program in statistics, survey methodology, and economics aimed at improving economic and social measurements within the federal statistical system. Since beginning his career at the Census Bureau in 1992, he has also served as the chief economist, chief of the Center for Economic Studies, and a research economist.

Jarmin holds a PhD in economics from the University of Oregon. An elected fellow of the American Statistical Association, he has published papers in the areas of industrial organization, business dynamics, entrepreneurship, technology and firm performance, urban economics, data access, and statistical disclosure avoidance.