Declining Birth Rates in the US: It's Not Only about Preferences

Summary

Using the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), this paper explores reasons behind the falling birth rate in the United States. The analysis confirms that newer generations of women are less likely to have any children than generations that came before. Comparing outcomes among women at the same age, we identify two reasons for this decline: (1) a dramatic decrease in the desire to have children, but only among the youngest generation in the sample (Gen Z), and (2) an increase in the medical difficulty of having children among all women since the Boomer generation. We discuss potential contributing factors both influencing preferences and biological constraints contributing to the decline in birth rates.