• Inflation Project

     
     
     
     
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    Business Inflation Expectations Remain Unchanged at 2.2 Percent - November 2024

    • Inflation expectations: Firms' year-ahead inflation expectations remained relatively unchanged at 2.2 percent, on average.
    • Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" remained relatively unchanged. Year-over-year unit cost growth remained relatively unchanged at 2.6 percent, on average.
    • Quarterly question: Firms reported a median 3.0 percent price increase over the past 12 months and a median 3.0 percent expected price increase over the next 12 months. This has decreased from August 2024, the last time we asked this question.
    • Special question: Firms were asked about their inflation and own-industry price expectations, as well as their number of direct competitors.

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    Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey

     

    Standard Questions

    The questions below are asked each month to assess the firm’s current business environment and inflation expectations.

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

    Rotating Questions

    Each question is asked once per quarter in the order indicated below.

     

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

    Note: After careful consideration, we have chosen to discontinue the common influences on prices quarter questions in favor of the price change realizations and expectations questions, which we hope will be more useful for policy analysis and in research.

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

    Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

    Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

     

    Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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    The Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) is fielded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It was designed, tested and refined by the Atlanta Fed Economic Research Survey Center.

    Our monthly Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey goes to about 640 panel members (as of June 2023), who occupy executive and managerial positions at 6th district's firms. We contact panel members each month by email, and they respond via a web-based instrument.

    Survey questions pertain to current, past, and future outcomes at the respondent's firm. Our primary objective is to elicit the respondent's subjective forecast distributions over own-firm future unit-cost growth. We gather qualitative information on firms' sales levels and margins on a monthly basis. We include a set of rotating quarterly questions covering firms' longer-run probabilistic unit-cost expectations, quantitative sales gaps, and factors influencing pricing. Our survey also includes space of special questions on timely, policy-relevant topics.

    Survey Release Dates

    The survey period runs from Monday to Friday, typically at midmonth. Survey release dates are scheduled for the following Wednesday, except in cases where the release would conflict with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period, which begins at midnight ET the second Saturday before meetings of the FOMC and lasts until midnight ET the day after a meeting ends. In such cases, the release is changed to respect the FOMC's communications guidelines.

    2024
    January 17
    February 21
    March 20
    April 17
    May 22
    June 20
    July 17
    August 21
    September 18
    October 23
    November 20
    December 18

    2025
    January 22
    February 19
    March 19
    April 23
    May 21
    June 18
    July 23
    August 20
    September 17
    October 22
    November 19
    December 17

    "Opinion: I'm OK, but Things Are Terrible," New York Times, September 7, 2023.

    "Opinion: Core Inflation Is Outdated. Time to Look at Supercore and Other Measures." New York Times, June 16, 2023.

    "Why Don't Americans Recognize that Inflation is Down and Incomes Are Up?," Washington Monthly, May 23, 2023.

    "Opinion: Which Inflation Measures Matter?," New York Times, April 25, 2023.

    To make sound policy decisions in a shifting landscape, our policymakers look to business leaders to learn more about their expectations, the challenges they face, and their overall view of economy. Now more than ever, input from business decision-makers will be key to our understanding of the path forward. We hope you will consider lending your voice to this important work.

    If you are interested in joining a diverse group of businesses that provide deeper insight into economic conditions, please complete this form or contact Grace Guynn.