https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/08/21/04-will-tariffs-touch-off-inflationary-impulse-business-execs-think-so?item=4be5d5f3-44fd-4360-b844-41b03d7ae0f7 4be5d5f3-44fd-4360-b844-41b03d7ae0f7 Thursday, 21 Aug 2025 10:0:0 EST Will they or won't they? The potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation is a matter of robust debate. This paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential impact and the prospect for inflationary pressures to broaden beyond those firms that are directly affected. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/08/19/07-firm-level-input-price-changes-and-their-effects-deep-learning-approach?item=8c12c88a-2aa6-4ae3-8a8b-a610f10b3055 8c12c88a-2aa6-4ae3-8a8b-a610f10b3055 Tuesday, 19 Aug 2025 13:0:0 EST Sudheer Chava, Wendi Du, Indrajit Mitra, Agam Shah, and Linghang ZengWorking Paper 2025-7August 2025We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes using textual analysis of earnings calls. We establish five facts: (1) Input prices increase (decrease) at the median firm once every seven (30) months. (2) Input price changes contain an equal blend of aggregate and firm-specific components. (3) A firm's stock price experiences a –1.15 percent return when our input price change measure is in the top tercile of price increases. (4) Our input price change measure predicts future changes in the cost of goods sold. (5) Firms pass through input price changes to output prices in the same quarter with a magnitude of 0.7. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/07/14/06-effect-of-unemployment-insurance-eligibibility-in-equilibrium?item=bf8ec1bc-3d53-485d-a0e2-de56dccf54c7 bf8ec1bc-3d53-485d-a0e2-de56dccf54c7 Monday, 14 Jul 2025 10:0:0 EST Ying H. Chao, Benjamin S. Griffy, and David WiczerWorking Paper 2025-06July 2025Examining the impact of unemployment insurance on re-employment outcomes, the authors use discontinuities in eligibility rules to show that unemployment insurance increases post-unemployment earnings by 10 percent. They then contextualize this within a model, showing that the true effect is even larger. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/07/01/05-why-does-the-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth?item=540c9b97-ab60-42f4-8482-20861ded6f7e 540c9b97-ab60-42f4-8482-20861ded6f7e Tuesday, 1 Jul 2025 10:0:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2025-5July 2025Using granular bank lending data and identified term premium shocks, the authors of this working paper show that a steeper yield curve when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates increases expected bank profits and bank loan supply. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/06/26/03-labor-market-dynamics-during-2021-24-inflation-surge?item=7f309611-c40f-48d8-a69f-818cccb84e75 7f309611-c40f-48d8-a69f-818cccb84e75 Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 15:39:0 EST A paper addresses the surge in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio during the 2021–24 inflation episode. The increase in vacancies relative to unemployment was largely driven by falling real wages and a rise in job-to-job transitions, as workers sought to recover lost purchasing power. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/05/19/04-bank-financing-of-global-supply-chains?item=66ed0d20-ddb0-4210-81b5-fdccbec70ff2 66ed0d20-ddb0-4210-81b5-fdccbec70ff2 Monday, 19 May 2025 10:0:0 EST Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu, and Andrea PresbiteroWorking Paper 2025-4May 2025Examining the role of banks in the reconfiguration of supply chains after the 2018–19 US-China tariffs, the authors show that importers of tariff-hit products were more likely to find new suppliers in other Asian countries if they had a relationship with an Asian-trade finance specialized bank. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/04/14/03-screen-more-sell-later-screening-and-dynamic-signaling-in-mortgage-market?item=9b8280c1-c58c-4ccd-9178-337da06142bc 9b8280c1-c58c-4ccd-9178-337da06142bc Monday, 14 Apr 2025 10:0:0 EST Manuel Adelino, Bin Wei, and Feng ZhaoWorking Paper 2025-3April 2025Exploring the relationship between screening effort and signaling in the mortgage market, the authors produce research suggesting that a higher screening effort corresponds with more signaling in the market, particularly through delayed sales. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/03/24/02-economic-diversity-and-resilience-of-cities?item=be8e5aaf-6cc5-48fb-8506-a0ba729d91fc be8e5aaf-6cc5-48fb-8506-a0ba729d91fc Monday, 24 Mar 2025 10:0:0 EST François de Soyres, Simon Fuchs, Illenin O. Kondo, and Helene MaghinWorking Paper 2025-2March 2025Are cities with a broader mix of sectors and occupations more resilient? Analysis of data across occupations, industries, and cities in France reveals that local economic diversity provides workers with valuable insurance. The authors propose a framework to quantify this "insurance value" of economic diversity. https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/annual-report/2024?item=dd382905-ee1c-4a96-8321-1b824690bb71 dd382905-ee1c-4a96-8321-1b824690bb71 Friday, 21 Mar 2025 14:48:0 EST The Atlanta Fed's 2024 Annual Report includes information on our leadership structure, financials, compliance, and commitment to transparency. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/03/04/02--post-election-optimism-and-own-firm-expectations?item=f47b0870-66b5-45d1-b560-93db3e9ce512 f47b0870-66b5-45d1-b560-93db3e9ce512 Tuesday, 4 Mar 2025 8:0:0 EST In the wake of last November's election, many corporate leaders expressed greater optimism for the US economy as a whole, but not necessarily for their own firm. This article explores possible reasons behind the seeming disconnect. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/02/28/01--tariffs-and-consumer-prices?item=315376f2-f939-4c2d-bc43-a793f806049f 315376f2-f939-4c2d-bc43-a793f806049f Friday, 28 Feb 2025 8:0:0 EST A paper finds that 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China and other countries could boost everyday US consumer prices by roughly 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent, with about half of the impact coming from Canadian and Mexican imports. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/02/19/01--foundational-processes-and-growth?item=5fc64a7d-9174-4414-972b-7122821c0e47 5fc64a7d-9174-4414-972b-7122821c0e47 Wednesday, 19 Feb 2025 10:0:0 EST Wing Wah Tham, Salomé Baslandze, Elvira Sojli, and Leo LiuWorking Paper 2025-1February 2025Analyzing texts of millions of patents, the authors study the interaction between process and product innovations and their distinct role in firm growth dynamics. The innovation model demonstrates that foundational processes drive sustained firm growth, especially via subsequent product creation. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/12/23/17--macroeconomics-of-irreversibility?item=535fb6ae-e2e5-4e06-a155-f907d8d1a594 535fb6ae-e2e5-4e06-a155-f907d8d1a594 Monday, 23 Dec 2024 10:0:0 EST Isaac Baley and Andrés BlancoWorking Paper 2024-17December 2024The authors construct a framework to understand the effects that partial irreversibility in investment has on the economy. Among other things, they find that irreversibility implies that investment responds rather sluggishly to shocks, which is consistent with the data. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/11/19/09--generations-of-discontent--labor-force-participation-and-wages?item=9cd2b888-010f-411f-a5a3-0bd0ad09e13b 9cd2b888-010f-411f-a5a3-0bd0ad09e13b Tuesday, 19 Nov 2024 8:0:0 EST After decades of decline, men's labor force participation rates started rising in the last decade. This paper explores reasons for the shift and contrasts the labor force participation rates of women, whose experiences across generations were quite different from those of men. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/11/12/08--industry-level-sources-for-solid-us-employment-growth--running-on-empty-or-more-room-to-run?item=e6b2ebb4-1c77-423c-bf55-2539fc2aa258 e6b2ebb4-1c77-423c-bf55-2539fc2aa258 Tuesday, 12 Nov 2024 8:0:0 EST Examining the recent US labor market, the authors find that three key sectors health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government are primarily driving its solid growth. They conclude that growth in these industries is slowing but should still contribute to a solid labor market.