https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/11/09/08--when-tight-is-too-tight--federal-reserves-response-to-post-world-war-ii-spike-in-inflation?item=668c9ade-6589-4724-a715-5fa069a6e727 668c9ade-6589-4724-a715-5fa069a6e727 Thursday, 9 Nov 2023 3:30:0 EST Using the lessons learned following the Federal Reserve's tightening actions in response to the post-World War II spike in inflation, the authors of this Policy Hub article draw parallels to today's postpandemic economy. They also analyze the effect of the current fiscal policy stance on "neutral" interest rates. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/11/08/17--critical-review-of-common-ownership-literature?item=07b8e460-010a-46f1-9663-adbd59626136 07b8e460-010a-46f1-9663-adbd59626136 Wednesday, 8 Nov 2023 10:0:0 EST Kristopher Gerardi, Michelle Lowry, and Carola SchenoneWorking Paper 2023-17November 2023The authors conduct a critical survey of the common ownership literature, focusing on measurement issues, identification challenges, and plausible causal mechanisms. They conclude that little credible evidence exists that common ownership exerts anticompetitive effects, although more research is warranted. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/11/03/07--local-origins-of-business-formation?item=dd09d9f7-64b4-48e7-b624-6a7c4fd0756a dd09d9f7-64b4-48e7-b624-6a7c4fd0756a Friday, 3 Nov 2023 3:30:0 EST Across the United States, the per capita rate of business startups varies widely. From the creation of an idea to forming a startup and hiring employees, what factors are at work? This Policy Hub article explores variables behind business formations. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/10/16/16--forward-guidance-and-its-effectiveness--macro-finance-shadow-framework?item=46fad734-32a1-4087-ac74-169a6d5a1eef 46fad734-32a1-4087-ac74-169a6d5a1eef Monday, 16 Oct 2023 10:0:0 EST Junko Koeda and Bin WeiWorking Paper 2023-16October 2023The authors examine central bank forward guidance, which provides monetary policy communication. They find that outcome-based forward guidance is indeed effective and has significant monetary-easing effects on the real economy. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/10/02/06--the-fed-and-its-shadow--historical-view?item=39142c9a-36ba-4614-9c04-c2a9897dcf6f 39142c9a-36ba-4614-9c04-c2a9897dcf6f Monday, 2 Oct 2023 3:30:0 EST Central bank policies have traditionally incorporated a discretionary, or active, component and a passive component. This Policy Hub article examines the passive component of monetary policy, which has emerged from the shadows and become relevant for Federal Reserve policy today. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/15--expansion-of-varieties-in-new-age-of-advertising?item=da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 da4e867a-07da-416a-8c17-635066d57451 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 10:0:0 EST Salomé Baslandze, Jeremy Greenwood, Ricardo Marto, and Sara MoreiraWorking Paper 2023-15September 2023The authors study how the rise in digital advertising that facilitated consumer targeting by firms led to the increase in product varieties and affected economic welfare. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/14--why-does-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth--role-of-banks?item=1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 1d064aca-5bbf-4f8c-a1a9-d5c801ac5940 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:30:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2023-14September 2023Examining the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending, the authors show that a steeper yield curve associated with higher term premiums boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/13--uniform-priors-for-impulse-responses?item=46895540-090d-4226-b135-4291a5a8444e 46895540-090d-4226-b135-4291a5a8444e Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 9:0:0 EST Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Daniel F. WaggonerWorking Paper 2023-13September 2023The authors consider the conventional method for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions identified with sign restrictions and despite the call for caution from some researchers find that there is nothing fundamentally wrong with using this approach. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/28/12--impact-of-supply-chain-disruptions-on-business-expectations-during-pandemic?item=5edd2fc3-86e0-40fa-9fe7-84dab082f184 5edd2fc3-86e0-40fa-9fe7-84dab082f184 Thursday, 28 Sep 2023 8:30:0 EST Brent H. Meyer, Brian C. Prescott, and Xuguang Simon ShengWorking Paper 2023-12September 2023Using data from the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey, the authors document how firms' views on their marginal cost expectations and risk evolved over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2023/09/25/05--do-credit-supply-shocks-constrain-employment-growth-of-small-and-medium-sized-enterprises?item=bccb77ea-c764-46cd-94ec-e84a11cca680 bccb77ea-c764-46cd-94ec-e84a11cca680 Monday, 25 Sep 2023 3:30:0 EST Small and medium-sized firms have accounted for a significant share of job growth in recent years. A Policy Hub article examines how tightening credit conditions might hamper their ability to grow and create jobs. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/09/07/11--modeling-event-studies-with-heterogeneous-treatment-effects?item=8c322a3a-89b8-4d35-adbb-72c43fa404e4 8c322a3a-89b8-4d35-adbb-72c43fa404e4 Thursday, 7 Sep 2023 3:30:0 EST Laura M. Argys, Thomas A. Mroz, and M. Melinda PittsWorking Paper 2023-11September 2023The authors develop a simple approach to overcome the shortcomings of using a standard, single treatment–effect event study to assess the ability of an empirical model to measure heterogeneous treatment effects. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/08/31/10--monetary-policy-implementation-with-ample-reserves?item=05378b40-b7cf-42ae-869e-eb9a4dde1504 05378b40-b7cf-42ae-869e-eb9a4dde1504 Thursday, 31 Aug 2023 3:30:0 EST Gara Afonso, Kyungmin Kim, Antoine Martin, Ed Nosal, Simon Potter, and Sam Schulhofer-WohlWorking Paper 2023-10August 2023Policy makers can face tradeoffs costs and benefits in the way they implement monetary policy. The authors find that the optimal regime is characterized by ample reserves: a situation where the supply of central bank reserves is neither too scarce nor too abundant. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/08/02/09--local-origins-of-business-formation?item=cd0423d7-6acd-4a3b-97fa-9f077a05fbdf cd0423d7-6acd-4a3b-97fa-9f077a05fbdf Wednesday, 2 Aug 2023 3:30:0 EST Emin Dinlersoz, Timothy Dunne, John Haltiwanger, and Veronika Penciakova Working Paper 2023-9August 2023The authors decompose spatial variation in startups into variation in business idea creation and the transition rate of ideas to startups. They also quantify the fraction of variation in startups, applications, and transition rates accounted for by local conditions at the county and tract levels. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/07/31/08--tell-me-something-i-dont-already-know--learning-in-low-and-high-inflation-settings?item=00cb03d4-bb89-4140-a7be-c20ddde348f0 00cb03d4-bb89-4140-a7be-c20ddde348f0 Monday, 31 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, and Geoff KennyWorking Paper 2023-8July 2023Using randomized control trials applied over time in different countries, the authors study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. In higher-inflation environments, firms become more attentive and informed about inflation, responding less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2023/07/14/07--social-costs-role-in-response-to-labor-market-opportunities--differences-across-race?item=4f0869f2-8afa-4d4c-bb5b-f24c0f783c74 4f0869f2-8afa-4d4c-bb5b-f24c0f783c74 Friday, 14 Jul 2023 3:30:0 EST Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. HotchkissWorking Paper 2023-7July 2023Investigating the role that migration constraints play in racial/ethnic disparities in the labor market, the authors find that Black workers are typically less responsive than White workers to changes in job opportunities, though their responsiveness increases when job opportunities are in locations with a higher share of their own racial/ethnic group.