https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/10/16/14-coboling-together-ui-benefits-how-delays-in-fiscal-stabilizers-affect-aggregate-consumption?item=1daff505-4941-4724-9a1d-032dbad7c84e 1daff505-4941-4724-9a1d-032dbad7c84e Thursday, 16 Oct 2025 14:25:0 EST Michael A. NavarreteWorking Paper 2025-14October 2025The US experienced an unprecedented increase in unemployment insurance (UI) claims beginning in March 2020. The author of this working paper finds that states that used an antiquated programming language, COBOL, experienced a 2.8-percentage point decline in card consumption relative to the card consumption in states with more modern UI benefit systems. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/10/14/13-evaluating-transporation-improvements-quantitatively-a-primer?item=80d09681-f5d7-4f90-a866-4cae201c0f40 80d09681-f5d7-4f90-a866-4cae201c0f40 Tuesday, 14 Oct 2025 11:25:0 EST Treb Allen, Simon Fuchs, and Woan Foong WongWorking Paper 2025-13October 2025Examining welfare gains from transportation infrastructure investment, the authors assess the welfare impact of upgrading segments of the US Interstate Highway System, highlighting where the returns to investment are highest. https://www.atlantafed.org/payments-forum/publications/2025/10/14/using-digital-identity-to-support-access-to-payments?item=db207136-a960-4d05-ab9d-f2f3767b71d9 db207136-a960-4d05-ab9d-f2f3767b71d9 Tuesday, 14 Oct 2025 11:22:0 EST https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/10/09/12-on-model-aggregation-and-forecast-combination?item=eff7da5d-a26e-4847-9c9b-d01097ead176 eff7da5d-a26e-4847-9c9b-d01097ead176 Thursday, 9 Oct 2025 14:27:0 EST Nikolay Gospodinov and Esfandiar MaasoumiWorking Paper 2025-12October 2025The authors of this working paper look at robust aggregation of information under pervasive model uncertainty. Their proposed method offers a scientific basis for the informal way policy makers refer to diversity of opinions and models available to them. The paper presents compelling evidence for the advantages of entropy-based aggregation for forecasting inflation. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/10/08/11-from-skills-to-occupations-comparative-advantage-and-cross-country-income-differences?item=83694535-5f85-4a26-b784-7cc7584933df 83694535-5f85-4a26-b784-7cc7584933df Wednesday, 8 Oct 2025 14:27:0 EST Charles Gottlieb, Jan Grobovsek, and Alexander Monge-NaranjoWorking Paper 2025-11October 2025Examining the role of human capital in cross-country income differences, the authors of this working paper develop a general equilibrium model where workers of different skill groups sort into occupations by comparative advantage. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/10/06/10-assess-role-of-global-demand-supply-shocks-in-recent-us-inflation-experience-using-cross-country-dataset-of-prof-forcasts?item=933479fb-a256-4e1b-81bb-9436eea05f8e 933479fb-a256-4e1b-81bb-9436eea05f8e Monday, 6 Oct 2025 14:27:0 EST Patrick HigginsWorking Paper 2025-10October 2025The author of this working paper assembles a quarterly international panel of professional forecasts and real-time data to estimate global supply and demand shocks and their impact on US economic growth and inflation both before and since 2020. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/09/25/09-uniformly-valid-test-for-instrument-exogeneity?item=d04fbb11-41a0-4000-8317-521e60107eeb d04fbb11-41a0-4000-8317-521e60107eeb Thursday, 25 Sep 2025 14:27:0 EST Prosper Dovonon and Nikolay GospodinovWorking Paper 2025-9September 2025Robustness is a desirable property of policy as it renders the policy recommendations invariant to the precise nature of shocks and analytical framework. The authors of this working paper propose a specification test that remains uniformly valid irrespective of the strength of identification signal that characterizes the model. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/09/25/05-how-credible-is-hong-kongs-currency-peg-insights-from-financial-market-prices?item=428f9b7d-feba-4946-b30f-74f4792afbe8 428f9b7d-feba-4946-b30f-74f4792afbe8 Thursday, 25 Sep 2025 10:0:0 EST Using data from the foreign exchange market, the authors estimate the probability that the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) remains pegged to the US dollar and the value the HKD would take if the peg were to break. The findings also offer insights into how global monetary shifts and local liquidity conditions shape perceptions of exchange rate stability. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/09/24/08-the-price-of-delay-supply-chain-disruptions-and-pricing-dynamics?item=25fbdd5e-193b-49d5-9a4a-f4b3d291a05a 25fbdd5e-193b-49d5-9a4a-f4b3d291a05a Wednesday, 24 Sep 2025 16:9:0 EST Salomé Baslandze and Simon FuchsWorking Paper 2025-8September 2025Using a unique match of US import and consumer price microdata, the authors of this working paper show sizable pass-through of firms’ delivery delays and import cost shocks during 2020–23. Moreover, firms including non-importers‐raised prices in response to competitors’ disruptions, underscoring strategic interactions. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/08/21/04-will-tariffs-touch-off-inflationary-impulse-business-execs-think-so?item=4be5d5f3-44fd-4360-b844-41b03d7ae0f7 4be5d5f3-44fd-4360-b844-41b03d7ae0f7 Thursday, 21 Aug 2025 10:0:0 EST Will they or won't they? The potential for tariffs to exert upward pressure on inflation is a matter of robust debate. This paper uses survey data to explore tariffs' potential impact and the prospect for inflationary pressures to broaden beyond those firms that are directly affected. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/08/19/07-firm-level-input-price-changes-and-their-effects-deep-learning-approach?item=8c12c88a-2aa6-4ae3-8a8b-a610f10b3055 8c12c88a-2aa6-4ae3-8a8b-a610f10b3055 Tuesday, 19 Aug 2025 13:0:0 EST Sudheer Chava, Wendi Du, Indrajit Mitra, Agam Shah, and Linghang ZengWorking Paper 2025-7August 2025We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes using textual analysis of earnings calls. We establish five facts: (1) Input prices increase (decrease) at the median firm once every seven (30) months. (2) Input price changes contain an equal blend of aggregate and firm-specific components. (3) A firm's stock price experiences a –1.15 percent return when our input price change measure is in the top tercile of price increases. (4) Our input price change measure predicts future changes in the cost of goods sold. (5) Firms pass through input price changes to output prices in the same quarter with a magnitude of 0.7. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/07/14/06-effect-of-unemployment-insurance-eligibibility-in-equilibrium?item=bf8ec1bc-3d53-485d-a0e2-de56dccf54c7 bf8ec1bc-3d53-485d-a0e2-de56dccf54c7 Monday, 14 Jul 2025 10:0:0 EST Ying H. Chao, Benjamin S. Griffy, and David WiczerWorking Paper 2025-06July 2025Examining the impact of unemployment insurance on re-employment outcomes, the authors use discontinuities in eligibility rules to show that unemployment insurance increases post-unemployment earnings by 10 percent. They then contextualize this within a model, showing that the true effect is even larger. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/07/01/05-why-does-the-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth?item=540c9b97-ab60-42f4-8482-20861ded6f7e 540c9b97-ab60-42f4-8482-20861ded6f7e Tuesday, 1 Jul 2025 10:0:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2025-5July 2025Using granular bank lending data and identified term premium shocks, the authors of this working paper show that a steeper yield curve when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates increases expected bank profits and bank loan supply. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/06/26/03-labor-market-dynamics-during-2021-24-inflation-surge?item=7f309611-c40f-48d8-a69f-818cccb84e75 7f309611-c40f-48d8-a69f-818cccb84e75 Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 15:39:0 EST A paper addresses the surge in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio during the 2021–24 inflation episode. The increase in vacancies relative to unemployment was largely driven by falling real wages and a rise in job-to-job transitions, as workers sought to recover lost purchasing power. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/05/19/04-bank-financing-of-global-supply-chains?item=66ed0d20-ddb0-4210-81b5-fdccbec70ff2 66ed0d20-ddb0-4210-81b5-fdccbec70ff2 Monday, 19 May 2025 10:0:0 EST Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu, and Andrea PresbiteroWorking Paper 2025-4May 2025Examining the role of banks in the reconfiguration of supply chains after the 2018–19 US-China tariffs, the authors show that importers of tariff-hit products were more likely to find new suppliers in other Asian countries if they had a relationship with an Asian-trade finance specialized bank.