https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/07/01/05-why-does-the-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth?item=540c9b97-ab60-42f4-8482-20861ded6f7e 540c9b97-ab60-42f4-8482-20861ded6f7e Tuesday, 1 Jul 2025 10:0:0 EST Camelia Minoiu, Andres Schneider, and Min WeiWorking Paper 2025-5July 2025Using granular bank lending data and identified term premium shocks, the authors of this working paper show that a steeper yield curve when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates increases expected bank profits and bank loan supply. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/06/26/03-labor-market-dynamics-during-2021-24-inflation-surge?item=7f309611-c40f-48d8-a69f-818cccb84e75 7f309611-c40f-48d8-a69f-818cccb84e75 Thursday, 26 Jun 2025 15:39:0 EST A paper addresses the surge in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio during the 2021–24 inflation episode. The increase in vacancies relative to unemployment was largely driven by falling real wages and a rise in job-to-job transitions, as workers sought to recover lost purchasing power. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/05/19/04-bank-financing-of-global-supply-chains?item=66ed0d20-ddb0-4210-81b5-fdccbec70ff2 66ed0d20-ddb0-4210-81b5-fdccbec70ff2 Monday, 19 May 2025 10:0:0 EST Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu, and Andrea PresbiteroWorking Paper 2025-4May 2025Examining the role of banks in the reconfiguration of supply chains after the 2018–19 US-China tariffs, the authors show that importers of tariff-hit products were more likely to find new suppliers in other Asian countries if they had a relationship with an Asian-trade finance specialized bank. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/04/14/03-screen-more-sell-later-screening-and-dynamic-signaling-in-mortgage-market?item=9b8280c1-c58c-4ccd-9178-337da06142bc 9b8280c1-c58c-4ccd-9178-337da06142bc Monday, 14 Apr 2025 10:0:0 EST Manuel Adelino, Bin Wei, and Feng ZhaoWorking Paper 2025-3April 2025Exploring the relationship between screening effort and signaling in the mortgage market, the authors produce research suggesting that a higher screening effort corresponds with more signaling in the market, particularly through delayed sales. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/03/24/02-economic-diversity-and-resilience-of-cities?item=be8e5aaf-6cc5-48fb-8506-a0ba729d91fc be8e5aaf-6cc5-48fb-8506-a0ba729d91fc Monday, 24 Mar 2025 10:0:0 EST François de Soyres, Simon Fuchs, Illenin O. Kondo, and Helene MaghinWorking Paper 2025-2March 2025Are cities with a broader mix of sectors and occupations more resilient? Analysis of data across occupations, industries, and cities in France reveals that local economic diversity provides workers with valuable insurance. The authors propose a framework to quantify this "insurance value" of economic diversity. https://www.atlantafed.org/economy-matters/annual-report/2024?item=dd382905-ee1c-4a96-8321-1b824690bb71 dd382905-ee1c-4a96-8321-1b824690bb71 Friday, 21 Mar 2025 14:48:0 EST The Atlanta Fed's 2024 Annual Report includes information on our leadership structure, financials, compliance, and commitment to transparency. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/03/04/02--post-election-optimism-and-own-firm-expectations?item=f47b0870-66b5-45d1-b560-93db3e9ce512 f47b0870-66b5-45d1-b560-93db3e9ce512 Tuesday, 4 Mar 2025 8:0:0 EST In the wake of last November's election, many corporate leaders expressed greater optimism for the US economy as a whole, but not necessarily for their own firm. This article explores possible reasons behind the seeming disconnect. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2025/02/28/01--tariffs-and-consumer-prices?item=315376f2-f939-4c2d-bc43-a793f806049f 315376f2-f939-4c2d-bc43-a793f806049f Friday, 28 Feb 2025 8:0:0 EST A paper finds that 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China and other countries could boost everyday US consumer prices by roughly 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent, with about half of the impact coming from Canadian and Mexican imports. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2025/02/19/01--foundational-processes-and-growth?item=5fc64a7d-9174-4414-972b-7122821c0e47 5fc64a7d-9174-4414-972b-7122821c0e47 Wednesday, 19 Feb 2025 10:0:0 EST Wing Wah Tham, Salomé Baslandze, Elvira Sojli, and Leo LiuWorking Paper 2025-1February 2025Analyzing texts of millions of patents, the authors study the interaction between process and product innovations and their distinct role in firm growth dynamics. The innovation model demonstrates that foundational processes drive sustained firm growth, especially via subsequent product creation. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/12/23/17--macroeconomics-of-irreversibility?item=535fb6ae-e2e5-4e06-a155-f907d8d1a594 535fb6ae-e2e5-4e06-a155-f907d8d1a594 Monday, 23 Dec 2024 10:0:0 EST Isaac Baley and Andrés BlancoWorking Paper 2024-17December 2024The authors construct a framework to understand the effects that partial irreversibility in investment has on the economy. Among other things, they find that irreversibility implies that investment responds rather sluggishly to shocks, which is consistent with the data. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/11/19/09--generations-of-discontent--labor-force-participation-and-wages?item=9cd2b888-010f-411f-a5a3-0bd0ad09e13b 9cd2b888-010f-411f-a5a3-0bd0ad09e13b Tuesday, 19 Nov 2024 8:0:0 EST After decades of decline, men's labor force participation rates started rising in the last decade. This paper explores reasons for the shift and contrasts the labor force participation rates of women, whose experiences across generations were quite different from those of men. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/11/12/08--industry-level-sources-for-solid-us-employment-growth--running-on-empty-or-more-room-to-run?item=e6b2ebb4-1c77-423c-bf55-2539fc2aa258 e6b2ebb4-1c77-423c-bf55-2539fc2aa258 Tuesday, 12 Nov 2024 8:0:0 EST Examining the recent US labor market, the authors find that three key sectors health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government are primarily driving its solid growth. They conclude that growth in these industries is slowing but should still contribute to a solid labor market. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/10/18/16--trade-uncertainty-and-us-bank-lending?item=175c3fb7-f268-478b-9190-e336e42ccce1 175c3fb7-f268-478b-9190-e336e42ccce1 Friday, 18 Oct 2024 10:0:0 EST Ricardo Correa, Julian di Giovanni, Linda S. Goldberg, and Camelia MinoiuWorking Paper 2024-16aOctober 2024 (Revised February 2025)Studying the effects of trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply, the authors find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across banks' customer firms. They also find that the lending contraction is larger for more capital-constrained banks and has significant real effects. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/policy-hub/2024/10/17/07--international-approach-to-neutral-interest-rate?item=cf0aede1-293b-45a4-bd1b-fdad23b9e772 cf0aede1-293b-45a4-bd1b-fdad23b9e772 Thursday, 17 Oct 2024 8:0:0 EST The author examines the US net international investment position, which has declined as long-term yields have increased. He concludes that increasing net savings is necessary to meet US long-run budget constraints. https://www.atlantafed.org/research/publications/wp/2024/10/15/15--mortgage-lock-in-lifecycle-migration-and-welfare-effects-of-housing-market-liquidity?item=6d817a39-9893-4e95-83db-7de7cc0900cf 6d817a39-9893-4e95-83db-7de7cc0900cf Tuesday, 15 Oct 2024 10:0:0 EST Kristopher Gerardi, Franklin Qian, and David ZhangWorking Paper 2024-15October 2024Examining the effects of housing market illiquidity due to mortgage lock-in, the authors find that younger home buyers are disproportionately affected by mortgage lock-in, which disrupts their typical pattern of moving to higher-quality neighborhoods.