Working Papers - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - FRB Atlanta Several series of papers presenting the scholarly research of Atlanta Fed staff economists and visiting scholars. Community Affairs discussion papers address topical issues in community development. en-us Atlanta Fed Logo Diamond-Dybvig and Beyond: On the Instability of Banking B7434BBD-1BF7-47D0-80AC-A109B0F5D5F7 Mon, 13 Feb 2023 09:30:00 EST Are financial intermediaries inherently unstable? The authors of this working paper address this question using a number of different, but related, models. They consistently find that financial intermediaries are more prone to instability than other types of nonfinancial organizations. Sovereign Risk and Bank Lending: Theory and Evidence from a Natural Disaster 2C6AC82F-030E-46AC-A830-B76EA85F9D8D Thu, 09 Feb 2023 09:30:00 EST Examining the relationship between sovereign risk and bank lending, the authors of this working paper find that for banks with higher exposure to government securities, a higher sovereign default risk implies lower net worth and tightening financial constraint, which lead to lower credit provision. Central Bank Digital Currencies: An Old Tale with a New Chapter DC94795E-B3C3-482D-830A-B7E6C78BE893 Tue, 20 Dec 2022 09:30:00 EST The authors of this working paper consider the debut of a new monetary instrument, central bank digital currencies. Drawing on examples from monetary history, they argue that a successful monetary transformation must combine microeconomic efficiency with macroeconomic credibility. Can Everyone Tap Into the Housing Piggy Bank? Racial Disparities in Access to Home Equity D6800D75-95F0-4EBD-893D-A5A417DD58ED Tue, 22 Nov 2022 12:55:00 EST The authors of this working paper document significant racial disparities in approval rates and financing costs for mortgage equity withdrawal loans and find that underwriting factors such as credit scores and debt-to-income ratios can explain the vast majority of the gaps. The Anatomy of Out-of-Sample Forecasting Accuracy 43BD0F69-D150-4441-83E0-93CF4FDB38F8 Mon, 07 Nov 2022 09:30:00 EST The authors of this working paper develop metrics for interpreting time-series prediction models and their out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, and they use them to interpret fitted models that employ large datasets and machine learning to forecast US inflation. The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market CDABD185-11C6-4C40-BF17-FF8FD8C5C621 Thu, 20 Oct 2022 09:30:00 EST In 2004 and 2005, US house prices and sales surged. In 2006, a sharp, dramatic downturn triggered the onset of the Great Recession. The authors of this working paper assess how well the stock-flow matching framework explains the housing market performance during this time. Globalization and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Hollywood 0819DF36-7724-4A7F-8E40-9B0DAD9DF92C Thu, 06 Oct 2022 09:30:00 EST International trade allows firms to reach a large customer base, but consumers across markets might prefer different products. The authors of this working paper build a model to study trade when demand is both heterogeneous and volatile across countries and use their model to study the international box office. Multimodal Transport Networks D3992E75-8E29-4ED3-9DCF-29E333BCC8F6 Wed, 05 Oct 2022 09:30:00 EST US freight shipments rely on a complex network of road, rail, and maritime linkages to reach their final destinations. In this working paper, the authors construct a model of these linkages to describe the optimal infrastructure investments for the US transportation network. Why Aging Induces Deflation and Secular Stagnation 94FCB859-8A61-49D8-A705-A55A92685C30 Thu, 29 Sep 2022 10:00:00 EST Many industrialized countries experienced a lengthy episode of low inflation rates, real interest rates, and growth of per capita gross domestic product before the COVID pandemic. The authors of this working paper propose a lifecycle model and show how and why aging induces downward pressure on these indicators of aggregate activity. The Good, the Bad, and the Ordinary: Estimating Agent Value-Added Using Real Estate Transactions 2450D006-4296-409F-9C4C-A6D7F8D2BA5C Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:30:00 EST The authors of this working paper document significant heterogeneity in real estate agent performance when selling and buying homes. Most agents do not negotiate better prices for their clients, and they do not outperform nonagents who list their own properties on the Multiple Listing Service.