https://www.atlantafed.org en-us https://www.atlantafed.org https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2026/02/17/02-merchant-steering-of-consumer-payment-choice Tue, 17 Feb 2026 13:57:00 EST New Atlanta Fed research identifies reasons why consumers often deviate from their preferred payment method when making in-person purchases. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2026/01/12/01-evolution-of-us-educational-mobility-over-the-20th-century-and-the-role-of-public-education Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:33:00 EST Using two new large-scale linked datasets, the authors examine the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility in the United States during the 20th century and the role that investments in public education have played in shaping these long-run trends. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/11/06/15-geospatial-heterogeneity-in-inflation-market-concentration-story Thu, 06 Nov 2025 14:25:00 EST Examining how inflation varies across regions with different income levels, the authors show that from 2006 to 2020, poorer metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) experienced higher food inflation compared to wealthier MSAs. The authors identity a causal link between market concentration and inflation by exploiting the 2014–15 bird flu episode. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/10/16/14-coboling-together-ui-benefits-how-delays-in-fiscal-stabilizers-affect-aggregate-consumption Thu, 16 Oct 2025 14:25:00 EST The US experienced an unprecedented increase in unemployment insurance (UI) claims beginning in March 2020. The author finds that states that used an antiquated programming language, COBOL, experienced a 2.8-percentage point decline in card consumption relative to the card consumption in states with more modern UI benefit systems. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/10/14/13-evaluating-transporation-improvements-quantitatively-a-primer Tue, 14 Oct 2025 11:25:00 EST Examining welfare gains from transportation infrastructure investment, the authors assess the welfare impact of upgrading segments of the US Interstate Highway System, highlighting where the returns to investment are highest. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/10/09/12-on-model-aggregation-and-forecast-combination Thu, 09 Oct 2025 14:27:00 EST The authors of this working paper look at robust aggregation of information under pervasive model uncertainty. Their proposed method offers a scientific basis for the informal way policy makers refer to diversity of opinions and models available to them. The paper presents compelling evidence for the advantages of entropy-based aggregation for forecasting inflation. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/10/08/11-from-skills-to-occupations-comparative-advantage-and-cross-country-income-differences Wed, 08 Oct 2025 14:27:00 EST Examining the role of human capital in cross-country income differences, the authors of this working paper develop a general equilibrium model where workers of different skill groups sort into occupations by comparative advantage. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/10/06/10-assess-role-of-global-demand-supply-shocks-in-recent-us-inflation-experience-using-cross-country-dataset-of-prof-forcasts Mon, 06 Oct 2025 14:27:00 EST The author of this working paper assembles a quarterly international panel of professional forecasts and real-time data to estimate global supply and demand shocks and their impact on US economic growth and inflation both before and since 2020. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/09/25/09-uniformly-valid-test-for-instrument-exogeneity Thu, 25 Sep 2025 14:27:00 EST Robustness is a desirable property of policy as it renders the policy recommendations invariant to the precise nature of shocks and analytical framework. The authors of this working paper propose a specification test that remains uniformly valid irrespective of the strength of identification signal that characterizes the model. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/09/24/08-the-price-of-delay-supply-chain-disruptions-and-pricing-dynamics Wed, 24 Sep 2025 16:09:00 EST Using a unique match of US import and consumer price microdata, the authors of this working paper show sizable pass-through of firms' delivery delays and import cost shocks during 2020–23. Moreover, firms including non-importers‐raised prices in response to competitors' disruptions, underscoring strategic interactions. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/08/19/07-firm-level-input-price-changes-and-their-effects-deep-learning-approach Tue, 19 Aug 2025 13:00:00 EST We develop firm-level measures of input and output price changes using textual analysis of earnings calls. We establish five facts: (1) Input prices increase (decrease) at the median firm once every seven (30) months. (2) Input price changes contain an equal blend of aggregate and firm-specific components. (3) A firm's stock price experiences a –1.15 percent return when our input price change measure is in the top tercile of price increases. (4) Our input price change measure predicts future changes in the cost of goods sold. (5) Firms pass through input price changes to output prices in the same quarter with a magnitude of 0.7. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/07/14/06-effect-of-unemployment-insurance-eligibibility-in-equilibrium Mon, 14 Jul 2025 10:00:00 EST Examining the impact of unemployment insurance on re-employment outcomes, the authors use discontinuities in eligibility rules to show that unemployment insurance increases post-unemployment earnings by 10 percent. They then contextualize this within a model, showing that the true effect is even larger. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/07/01/05-why-does-the-yield-curve-predict-gdp-growth Tue, 01 Jul 2025 10:00:00 EST Using granular bank lending data and identified term premium shocks, the authors of this working paper show that a steeper yield curve when driven by higher term premiums rather than higher expected short rates increases expected bank profits and bank loan supply. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/05/19/04-bank-financing-of-global-supply-chains Mon, 19 May 2025 10:00:00 EST Examining the role of banks in the reconfiguration of supply chains after the 2018–19 US-China tariffs, the authors show that importers of tariff-hit products were more likely to find new suppliers in other Asian countries if they had a relationship with an Asian-trade finance specialized bank. https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2025/04/14/03-screen-more-sell-later-screening-and-dynamic-signaling-in-mortgage-market Mon, 14 Apr 2025 10:00:00 EST Exploring the relationship between screening effort and signaling in the mortgage market, the authors produce research suggesting that a higher screening effort corresponds with more signaling in the market, particularly through delayed sales.