Business Inflation Expectations Increased to Increased to 2.8 Percent — April 2025
- Inflation expectations: Firms' year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8 percent, on average.
- Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" both decreased. Year-over-year unit cost growth decreased to 2.2 percent, on average.
- Quarterly question: Firms' sales levels fell by 1 percentage point compared to January 2025. Small, medium, and large firms all reported about a 2 percentage point decrease in sales levels.
- Special question: Firms were asked about their ability to pass through cost increases as well as their concerns about a potential recession in the United States.
Click on a marker to view that month's results summary (starting January 2012).
Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey
Standard Questions
The questions below are asked each month to assess the firm’s current business environment and inflation expectations.
Question 1. How do your current sales levels compare with sales levels during what you consider to be "normal" times?
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Question 2. How do your current profit margins compare with "normal" times?
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Question 3. Looking back, how do your unit costs compare with this time last year?
Show Time Series | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Question 4. Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to unit costs over the next 12 months.
Show Time Series | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Rotating Questions
Each question is asked once per quarter in the order indicated below.
Quarterly Question: Looking back, by about what percent did you change prices over the last 12 months? Looking ahead, by about what percent do you expect to change prices over the next 12 months?
Quarterly Question: Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to unit costs per year over the next five to 10 years.
Show Time Series | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Quarterly Question: By roughly what percent are your firm's unit sales levels above/below "normal," if at all?
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Discontinued Quarterly Question: Projecting ahead over the next 12 months, how do you think the following five common influences will affect the prices of your products and/or services?
Note: After careful consideration, we have chosen to discontinue the common influences on prices quarter questions in favor of the price change realizations and expectations questions, which we hope will be more useful for policy analysis and in research.
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
De-identified Business Inflation Expectations microdata is now available for use by external researchers. Please complete the request form.
Latest Results as Chart Packs:
2025 2024- December 2024
- November 2024
- October 2024
- September 2024
- August 2024
- July 2024
- June 2024
- May 2024
- April 2024
- March 2024
- February 2024
- January 2024
The Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) is fielded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It was designed, tested and refined by the Atlanta Fed Economic Research Survey Center.
Our monthly Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey goes to about 640 panel members (as of June 2023), who occupy executive and managerial positions at 6th district's firms. We contact panel members each month by email, and they respond via a web-based instrument.
Survey questions pertain to current, past, and future outcomes at the respondent's firm. Our primary objective is to elicit the respondent's subjective forecast distributions over own-firm future unit-cost growth. We gather qualitative information on firms' sales levels and margins on a monthly basis. We include a set of rotating quarterly questions covering firms' longer-run probabilistic unit-cost expectations, quantitative sales gaps, and factors influencing pricing. Our survey also includes space of special questions on timely, policy-relevant topics.
Survey Release Dates
The survey period runs from Monday to Friday, typically at midmonth. Survey release dates are scheduled for the following Wednesday, except in cases where the release would conflict with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period, which begins at midnight ET the second Saturday before meetings of the FOMC and lasts until midnight ET the day after a meeting ends. In such cases, the release is changed to respect the FOMC's communications guidelines.
2025
January 22
February 19
March 19
April 23
May 21
June 18
July 23
August 20
September 17
October 22
November 19
December 17
"Opinion: I'm OK, but Things Are Terrible," New York Times, September 7, 2023.
"Opinion: Core Inflation Is Outdated. Time to Look at Supercore and Other Measures." New York Times, June 16, 2023.
"Why Don't Americans Recognize that Inflation is Down and Incomes Are Up?," Washington Monthly, May 23, 2023.
"Opinion: Which Inflation Measures Matter?," New York Times, April 25, 2023.
To make sound policy decisions in a shifting landscape, our policymakers look to business leaders to learn more about their expectations, the challenges they face, and their overall view of economy. Now more than ever, input from business decision-makers will be key to our understanding of the path forward. We hope you will consider lending your voice to this important work.
If you are interested in joining a diverse group of businesses that provide deeper insight into economic conditions, please complete this form or contact Grace Guynn.