Tao Zha
Research Center Executive Director
About
Tao Zha is Executive Director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor of Economics at Emory University, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
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Biography
Tao Zha is research center executive director of the Center for Quantitative Economic Research in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Samuel Candler Dobbs professor of economics at Emory University, and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Dr. Zha received his doctorate in economics from the University of Minnesota in December 1992. His major fields of study are macroeconomics, financial economics, the Chinese economy, and econometrics.
Dr. Zha has served on the editorial boards for several journals including Econometrica, Journal of Economic Literature, Quantitative Economics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and Journal of Econometrics. He has published in many academic journals, including Journal of Finance, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, Review of Economic Studies, Econometrica, American Economic Review, and Journal of Political Economy. Three of his articles were cited by the 2011 Nobel Economic Sciences Prize Committee. In 2017, Dr. Zha was elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society.
Published Work
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Publications
2019
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha. "A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks." Working Paper 2019-4. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. March 2019.
2018
Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha. "Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies." Working Paper 2018-12. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 2018.
2016
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China." Working Paper 2016-9a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 2016 (Revised October 2017).
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, and Karen Zhong. "Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation." Working Paper 2016-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 2016.
Tao Zha. "The Rise of Shadow Banking in China," macroblog. April 11, 2016.
Kaiji Chen, Jue Ren, and Tao Zha. "What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending." Working Paper 2016-1. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. January 2016.
2015
Kaiji Chen and Tao Zha. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Intermediation Shocks: A Structural Approach." Working Paper 2015-8. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. August 2015.
Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy." Working Paper 2015-5. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. June 2015.
2014
Daniel F. Waggoner, Hongwei Wu, and Tao Zha. "The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models." Working Paper 2014-21. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 2014.
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models." Working Paper 2014-16. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. August 2014.
Jianjun Miao, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha. "Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles." Working Paper 2014-15. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. August 2014.
2013
Zheng Liu, Jianjun Miao, and Tao Zha. "Land Prices and Unemployment." Working Paper 2013-22. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. September 2013.
Andrew Foerster, Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models." Working Paper 2013-1. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. March 2013.
2011
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha. "Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations." Working Paper 2011-11. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 2011.
2010
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha. "Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics." Working Paper 2010-18a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (Revised) February 2012.
Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Tao Zha. "Do Credit Constraints Amplify Macroeconomic Fluctuations?" Working Paper 2010-1. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. February 2010
2009
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models." Working Paper 2009-5. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. March 2009.
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-Switching DSGE Approach." Working Paper 2009-3a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (Revised) October 2010.
2008
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Minimal State Variable Solutions to Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models." Working Paper 2008-23a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (Revised) September 2010.
Kevin X.D. Huang, Zheng Liu, and Tao Zha. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks." Working Paper 2008-20. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 2008.
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment." Working Paper 2008-19. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 2008.
Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference." Working Paper 2008-18. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 2008.
2007
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation." Working Paper 2007-23. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. October 2007.
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Understanding the New Keynesian Model When Monetary Policy Switches Regimes." Working Paper 2007-12. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 2007.
2006
Christopher A. Sims, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Methods for Inference in Large Multiple-Equation Markov-Switching Models." Working Paper 2006-22. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 2006.
Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha. "The Conquest of South American Inflation." Working Paper 2006-20. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 2006.
Roger E.A. Farmer, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Indeterminacy in a Forward-Looking Regime-Switching Model." Working Paper 2006-19a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (Revised) September 2007.
Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts." Working Paper 2006-3. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. April 2006.
Andrew Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Transparency, Expectations, and Forecasts." Federal Reserve Bank of AtlantaEconomic Review (2006 Q1).
2005
Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application." Working Paper 2005-27. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. December 2005.
2004
Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams, and Tao Zha. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation." Working Paper 2004-22. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 2004.
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha. "MCMC Method for Markov Mixture Simultaneous-Equation Models: A Note." Working Paper 2004-15. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. June 2004.
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?" Working Paper 2004-14. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. June 2004.
James D. Hamilton, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Normalization in Econometrics." Working Paper 2004-13. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. June 2004.
2002
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha. "Modest Policy Interventions." Working Paper 2002-19. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 2002.
Robert Eisenbeis, Daniel Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Evaluating Wall Street Journal Survey Forecasters: A Multivariate Approach." Working Paper 2002-8a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 2002.
2001
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha. "Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macroeconomic Model." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2001 Q4).
2000
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha. "Assessing Simple Policy Rules: A View from a Complete Macro Model." Working Paper 2000-19. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. October 2000.
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha. "Likelihood-Preserving Normalization in Multiple Equation Models." Working Paper 2000-8. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. June 2000.
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha. "A Gibbs Simulator for Restricted VAR Models." Working Paper 2000-3. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. March 2000.
Madeline Zavodny and Tao Zha. "Monetary Policy and Racial Unemployment Rates." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2000 Q1).
1999
Eric M. Leeper and Tao Zha. "Modest Policy Interventions." Working Paper 99-22. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. December 1999.
Lutz Kilian and Tao Zha. "Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors." Working Paper 99-21. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. December 1999.
1998
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha. "Conditional Forecasts in Dynamic Multivariate Models." Working Paper 98-22. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. December 1998.
Christopher A. Sims and Tao A. Zha. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?" Working Paper 98-12. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 1998.
Tao Zha. "A Dynamic Multivariate Model for Use in Formulating Policy." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1998 Q1).
1997
Daniel F. Waggoner and Tao Zha. "Normalization, Probability Distribution, and Impulse Responses." Working Paper 97-11. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 1997.
David B. Gordon, Eric M. Leeper, and Tao Zha. "Trends in Velocity and Policy Expectations." Working Paper 97-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. November 1997.
Tao Zha. "Identifying Monetary Policy: A Primer." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (1997 Q2).
1996
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models." Working Paper 96-13. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. October 1996.
Tao Zha. "Identification, Vector Autoregression, and Block Recursion." Working Paper 96-8. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. August 1996.
1995
Tao Zha. "Bankruptcy Law Capital Allocation and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogeneous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets." Working Paper 95-8. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. October 1995.
David O. Cushman and Tao Zha. "Identifying Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy Under Flexible Exchange Rates." Working Paper 95-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. October 1995.
Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses." Working Paper 95-6. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 1995.
Podcast Episodes
2016
Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha. "Examining China's Economy: A Conversation with Atlanta Fed Researchers." Economy Matters podcast. September 22, 2016.