Patrick Higgins
Policy Adviser and Economist
About
Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed's weekly Deflation Probabilities report.
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Biography
Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed's weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcasting" forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time. His research interests include macroeconomics, econometrics, and forecasting. He was promoted to senior economist in 2013. He also contributes to the Atlanta Fed's macroblog, which provides commentary on economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy.
Prior to joining the Atlanta Fed as an economist in 2007, Higgins spent seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. There, he served as a research assistant and economic analyst.
Higgins's work has appeared in the International Journal of Finance & Economics, as well as the Cleveland Fed's Economic Commentary. He is a member of the National Association for Business Economics.
A native of Columbus, Ohio, Higgins earned a bachelor's degree in economics and mathematics from Oberlin College.
Published Work
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Publications
2019
David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Patrick Higgins, Darryl Koehler, Laurence Kotlikoff, Ellyn Terry, and Victor Ye. "Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?" Working Paper 2019-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. April 2019.
Alan Auerbach, Darryl Koehler, Michael Leiseca, Laurence Kotlikoff, Victor Ye, David Altig, Patrick Higgins, and Ellyn Terry. "The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, SALT, and the Blue State Blues: It's All Relative,"macroblog. June 7, 2019.
2018
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?." macroblog. February 13, 2018.
2017
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow's Second Quarter Forecast: Is It Too High?." macroblog. May 22, 2017.
Patrick Higgins. "Net Exports Continue to Bedevil GDPNow." macroblog. February 7, 2017.
2016
Patrick Higgins. "Using Judgment in Forecasting: Does It Matter?." macroblog. December 5, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "The Price Isn't Right: On GDPNow's Third Quarter Miss." macroblog. November 7, 2016.
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China." Working Paper 2016-9a. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. September 2016 (Revised October 2017).
Patrick Higgins. "Introducing the Atlanta Fed's Taylor Rule Utility." macroblog. September 8, 2016.
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, and Karen Zhong. "Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation." Working Paper 2016-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 2016.
Dave Altig and Patrick Higgins. "How Good Is The Employment Trend? Decide for Yourself." macroblog. July 15, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "When It Rains, It Pours." macroblog. July 6, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Can Two Wrongs Make a Right?." macroblog. May 23, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow and Then." macroblog. May 16, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Introducing the Refined Labor Market Spider Chart." macroblog. February 5, 2016.
2015
Patrick Higgins. "5-Year Deflation Probability Moves Off Zero." macroblog. September 4, 2015.
Patrick Higgins. "Is Measurement Error a Likely Explanation for the Lack of Productivity Growth in 2014?." macroblog. April 6, 2015.
2014
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow: A Model for GDP "Nowcasting"." Working Paper 2014-7. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July 2014.
2011
Patrick Higgins. "GDP Growth, the Unemployment Rate, and Okun's Law" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2011 Q3).
2006
John B. Carlson, Ben Craig, Patrick Higgins, and William R. Melick. "FOMC Communications and the Predictability of Near-Term Policy Decisions ." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, June 6, 2006.
2005
Patrick Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "Nondeliverable Forwards: Can We Tell Where the Renminbi Is Headed?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, September 1, 2005.
Patrick Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "The Chinese Renminbi: What's Real, What's Not" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, August 15, 2005.
2004
Joseph G. Haubrich, Patrick Higgins, and Janet Miller. "Oil Prices: Backward to the Future?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, December 1, 2004.
Patrick C. Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "Walking on a Fence: Brazil's Public-Sector Debt." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, February 1, 2004.
Podcast Episodes
2016
Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha. "Examining China's Economy: A Conversation with Atlanta Fed Researchers." Economy Matters podcast. September 22, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Going Inside GDPNow." Economy Matters podcast. January 14, 2016.
External work by Atlanta Fed staff.
Podcast Episodes
2023
Jim Cagnina (interviewer) with Patrick Higgins. "NinjaTrader And GDPnow Atlanta On GDP." NinjaTrader podcast. May 25, 2023.