If you didn't have a reason to discount month-to-month movements in economic statistics before, you got one today as the Consumer Price Index rose at a annual rate in excess of 6% in July, following no change at all in June. If you suspect energy prices might be implicated, you would be right. The CPI excluding food and energy prices rose came in at annual rate under 2 percent for the third month in a row.
In fact, the 12-month rate of change in the CPI excluding food and energy has been persistently drifting downward over the course of the year. Not so the "median CPI", the Cleveland Fed's alternative "core" inflation measure. Here's the details:
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median ConsumerPrice Index rose 0.2% (2.6% annualized rate) in July. The median CPI is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.
Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.5% (6.4% annualized rate) in July. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.8% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the CPI 3.2%, and the CPI less food and energy 2.1%.
| Percent Change From Previous Month | ||||||
| Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | June | July | |
| CPI | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| CPI less food & energy | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| MEDIAN CPI | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Percent Change, Last 12 Months | ||||||
| Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | June | July | |
| CPI | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| CPI less food & energy | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| MEDIAN CPI* | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
That last line of the table is the key one. According to the median CPI measure, the inflation trend has been, and is still, holding steady.