Business Inflation Expectations
The Business Inflation Expectations survey was created to measure the year-ahead inflationary sentiments of businesses in the Sixth District. It also helps inform our view of the sources of cost changes and provides insight into the factors driving business' pricing decisions.
2.4%
Business Inflation Expectations (May data)
Updated: May 20, 2026
- Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” decreased. Year-over-year unit cost growth increased to 2.4 percent, on average.
- Quarterly questions: Firms reported a mean 3.7 percent (median 3.0 percent) price increase over the past 12 months and a mean 4.1 percent (median 3.0 percent) expected price increase over the next 12 months. Realized and expected prices increased from February to a 3.0 percent median realized price and a 3.0 percent median expected price.
- Special questions: In May's special questions, we asked firms to consider their use of AI and its impact on employment and task allocation.
De-identified Business Inflation Expectations microdata is now available for use by external researchers. Please complete the request form.
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2023
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The Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) is fielded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It was designed, tested and refined by the Atlanta Fed Economic Research Survey Center.
Our monthly Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey goes to about 640 panel members (as of June 2023), who occupy executive and managerial positions at 6th district's firms. We contact panel members each month by email, and they respond via a web-based instrument.
Survey questions pertain to current, past, and future outcomes at the respondent's firm. Our primary objective is to elicit the respondent's subjective forecast distributions over own-firm future unit-cost growth. We gather qualitative information on firms' sales levels and margins on a monthly basis. We include a set of rotating quarterly questions covering firms' longer-run probabilistic unit-cost expectations, quantitative sales gaps, and factors influencing pricing. Our survey also includes space of special questions on timely, policy-relevant topics.
Survey Release Dates
The survey period runs from Monday to Friday, typically at midmonth. Survey release dates are scheduled for the following Wednesday, except in cases where the release would conflict with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period, which begins at midnight ET the second Saturday before meetings of the FOMC and lasts until midnight ET the day after a meeting ends. In such cases, the release is changed to respect the FOMC's communications guidelines.
2026
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"Opinion: I'm OK, but Things Are Terrible," New York Times, September 7, 2023.
"Opinion: Core Inflation Is Outdated. Time to Look at Supercore and Other Measures." New York Times, June 16, 2023.
"Why Don't Americans Recognize that Inflation is Down and Incomes Are Up?," Washington Monthly, May 23, 2023.
"Opinion: Which Inflation Measures Matter?," New York Times, April 25, 2023.
To make sound policy decisions in a shifting landscape, our policymakers look to business leaders to learn more about their expectations, the challenges they face, and their overall view of economy. Now more than ever, input from business decision-makers will be key to our understanding of the path forward. We hope you will consider lending your voice to this important work.
If you are interested in joining a diverse group of businesses that provide deeper insight into economic conditions, please complete this form or contact Grace Guynn.